Wild-card weekend sweats: Five bets to add to your NFL playoff card

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Wade Vandervort

Tampa Bay Buccaneers inside linebacker Devin White (45) attempts to tackle Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) during a game at Allegiant Stadium, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020.

Sat, Jan 15, 2022 (2 a.m.)

Perhaps the most memorable run in Sunday Sweats history started going into the NFL’s wild-card round a year ago, when I began a moneyline rollover parlay on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers all the way to the Super Bowl.

So who’s going to be this year’s Buccaneers as the pick for the column’s moneyline rollover parlay? No one, regrettably.

I wanted to run it back and do it again, and carefully considered three teams I think are possibly undervalued — the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. But, ultimately, I didn’t want to force it.

I bet every step of the way with the Buccaneers a year ago, and wasn’t ready to make the same commitment this season. That’s largely because I already have futures positions on Dallas and Buffalo.

As for the Rams, well, all the Matthew Stafford alarmism may have gotten to me slightly.

I’d still recommend the moneyline rollover parlay over placing a future in most scenarios at this point of the season. It just takes finding the right situation. The Buccaneers presented a great one a year ago; no one does this season for me personally so I’ll just try to find winners in the Sunday Sweats' five pre-existing five categories.

Read below for this week’s Sunday Sweats column. Bets placed outside of the pro football pick’em, including this weekly prop on the Raiders’ game will be tracked in the overall record here at the bottom of the page. Shout out to the Georgia Bulldogs for cashing our 10-to-1 ticket on them to win the national championship last week — which is reflected in the all-time record — though not to Jon Rahm for finishing second at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Tasty Total (9-8, $14.23): Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 46 points (STN Sports)

This number has adjusted as the forecast has more clearly called for strong winds and possible storms Sunday afternoon in Southwestern Florida, but has it adjusted enough? I don’t think so. At least not everywhere. It’s 45.5 points at most sports books, but a few shops are stubbornly sticking at 46. Unless there’s a big change in the expected elements, this should close 44.5. It’s not like either of these offenses are all that terrifying to go against anyway, at least not in current form. The Buccaneers are hamstrung by a glut of skill-position injuries, while the Eagles have been inconsistent all year. The chances of this developing into a shootout are slim.

Two-team Teaser (12-6, $399.96): Buccaneers -2.5 & Las Vegas Raiders +11.5 -120 (William Hill)

The Buccaneers are the easy inclusion in any six-point teaser this week, as they pass through both the 3 and 7 as an 8.5-point favorite. Finding a team to pair with Tampa Bay is the challenge, as there are no other real tease-able sides mathematically. Many gamblers are throwing Kansas City in, going from 12.5 to 6.5, but I shudder at the thought. Pittsburgh’s defense is healthier and should be better at Arrowhead this time around, so I don’t think it’s the easy cash it’s being made out to be. The Raiders aren't a get-rich-quick scheme either, in fairness, but this spread already looks a little high at +5.5. Now with the opportunity to pass through the 7 and 10, Las Vegas may be both the more unconventional and smarter option than Kansas City. It’s a risk to be sure, but with the Raiders and Bengals playing in the first game of wild-card weekend, at least I won’t have to wait for long to figure out whether it pays off.

Moneyline Parlay (8-9, $1,154.74): Dallas Cowboys & Los Angeles Rams +159 (Circa Sports)

As implied above, I’m more bullish on both the Cowboys and Rams than the market. Tying them together at plus-money seemed like the best moneyline parlay option on the board. The biggest concern is that Circa, traditionally the sharpest book in town, has the lowest moneyline prices on both teams. That almost certainly means someone with large influence who’s betting a whole lot of money disagrees with me. It caused a little hesitation, but in the end, you know what? So be it. Sometimes a bettor must take a stand. I think the Cowboys are more than 58% likely to beat the 49ers as their -150 Circa moneyline implies after adjusting for the hold. Similarly, I believe the Rams are more than 63% likely to knock off the Cardinals. Let’s go NFC chalk.

Player Prop (14-22, -$940): Zach Ertz under 52.5 receiving yards -110 (Boyd Sports)

Fade all the tight ends in the Monday Night Football game. That’s because the Cardinals and Rams are both in the top five in defending tight ends per Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. I was therefore torn on whether to take the under on the Cardinals’ Ertz or the Rams’ Tyler Higbee. Ertz gets the nod, and not because I also like the Rams in the game. This just feels like a sell-high on the veteran who’s coming off several big games in a row. His total is also 14 yards higher than Higbee, who’s over/under is set at 38.5, so there’s a little more wiggle room. Higbee could get lucky and break one big play to beat his number. It’s going to be more difficult for Ertz to do that.

Non-football Play (8-10, -$185.76): Katlyn Chookagian by decision vs. Jennifer Maia at UFC Fight Night Even money (Circa Sports)

The UFC is back for the first time in a month at the local Apex facility, and the main card presents a tremendous betting opportunity. Chookagian has nine victories inside the octagon, and they’ve all been by decision. That includes a relatively simple unanimous decision over Maia a little more than two years ago at UFC 244. There’s not much reason to think the rematch will go any differently. Chookagian is a master at controlling the fight but hasn’t shown any consistent finishing ability. I’d price this method-of-victory wager somewhere around -150, so Even money is a must take. It almost sounds too good to be true. I guess we’ll find out.

Sunday Sweats this season: 50-53, $443.17

Weekend betting column all-time: 228-217, $6,297.39

Previous pending wagers: Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament; Cody Stamman +175 vs. Said Nurmagomedov at UFC 270.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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