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Everything changes in one week.
College football’s Week Zero gets started in Dublin, Ireland, of all places, with Navy at Notre Dame kicking off a new season at 11:30 a.m. next Saturday. A soft opening of seven total games will ensue to usher in the new reality of sports betting for the next six months — Football rules all.
I’ll keep trying to cover and share bets on other sports, but football will take precedence. Just like it will take precedence in sports books all over town.
Stay on the lookout for columns covering both college football (in the form of Week Zero) and NFL futures next week, but in the meantime, I’ll share a bet on each to wrap up today’s Weekend Wagers. Find five other bets spanning the rest of the board first.
Read on for this week’s handful of plays. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.
Golf (4-11-1, -$870): Scottie Scheffler -180 head-to-head in third round of the BMW Championship vs. Rickie Fowler (BetMGM)
$360 to win $200
Chalky? Sure. Value? Surer. Scheffler is the best golfer in the world right now, and there's a gap between him and everyone else. The gap might be somewhat small from Scheffler to Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm, but it's a gulf for other 46 golfers still in the FedEx Cup. He could reasonably be a minimum of -200 against anyone else in a round matchup, including Fowler. The ever-popular former No. 4 ranked golfer in the world has put together a bounce-back season, but he ran into trouble late in the second round at the BMW with a pair of bogeys on the final three holes. It might be a sign of things to come as Olympia Fields outside of Chicago doesn't set up as well for his game. It's a much cleaner fit for Scheffler, whose driving distance and approach play should lead to making a run this weekend. Scheffler is five strokes back of leader Max Homa but don't count him out yet.
MLB (12-5, $1,660): San Francisco Giants +105 at Atlanta Braves (Wynn)
$200 to win $210
Yes, the Braves are light years ahead of the Giants — especially offensively. And they arguably should be favored in every potential starting pitching matchup except one. This one, to be exact. Laying a price with Yonny Chirinos, who’s reliably gotten smashed in virtually every outing since joining the Braves, against the Giants’ Logan Webb, would be indefensible. Webb has been one of the National League’s best pitchers this season, and it’s not like there’s no help around him. The Giants’ bullpen is strong, and their lineup is decent enough — high praise, I know. This doesn’t all guarantee a win, but it adds up to the price being off. The Giants should be a small favorite.
UFC (15-20, -$384): Maryna Moroz +130 vs. Karine Silva at UFC 292 (Circa)
$200 to win $260
The first fight in Boston this afternoon is a rematch of a women’s flyweight bout that saw Moroz beat Silva by first-round submission nine years ago in Brazil. An earlier win in a head-to-head series isn’t all that predictive, especially not one from nearly a decade ago, but it does help illustrate that Moroz was once at a far higher level than Silva. The market no longer perceives that as the case, but why not? Neither Silva nor Moroz have really done enough in their shorter UFC careers to separate from each other. Silva is on the better current run with seven straight wins but most of those fights came against competition that Moroz would also crush. This looks like an evenly-matched fight with a premium attached to the favorite for recency bias.
Soccer (1-2, -$260): Spain -110 to lift trophy vs. England in Women’s World Cup Final (STN Sports)
Australia's players leave the pitch after winning the Women's World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Australia and Denmark at Stadium Australia in Sydney, Australia, Monday, Aug. 7, 2023.
$110 to win $100
Call me stubborn but I don’t want the Women’s World Cup to end without having cashed a single ticket. Here’s a Hail Mary in the form of a slightly off-market price on what has been the best team in the tournament. Spain’s expected-goal numbers blow England’s away, as the former’s differential is more than one goal better than the latter’s on a per-game basis. Priors should play some role, and England came into the tournament higher-rated and with a more talented roster but the gap was considered negligible. Given what’s transpired in Oceania over the last month, Spain has surpassed them. Spain is more commonly -120 to lift the trophy, which is closer to a fair price but still ever-so-slightly short.
NASCAR (15-12, $3,530): Daniel Suarez Even money head-to-head vs. Michael McDowell in Go Bowling at the Glen Race (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)
NASCAR Cup Series driver Daniel Suarez (99) slides on the infield grass after losing control during the South Point 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022.
$200 to win $200
The pressure is off McDowell after he came through, and cashed a bet for us, last week at the Indianapolis road race to clinch a spot in the NASCAR Cup playoffs. Now it’s on drivers like Suarez, who’s currently on the outside looking in at the 16-car field with only two regular-season races to go. Luckily for Suarez, this weekend’s Watkins Glen International is one of his better courses and a place where he had one of the fastest cars last year. He figured to be slightly better than McDowell anyway, and now the latter can tinker and try out different strategies with no long-term risk. Suarez must win, and it’s always preferable for a bettors’ motivations to be aligned with the competitor’s.
College football (0-0, $0): Florida International at Louisiana Tech under 59.5 (Wynn)
$220 to win $200
A working theory: College football’s new clock rules are going to speed up the game and cut down scoring more than most are anticipating. Problem is, if my conviction proves right, the market is going to adjust quickly. There’s only going to be a week or two to take advantage, so I want to make sure to look for unders starting in Week Zero. The highest total on the board out of the initial seven games is 65 for San Jose State vs. USC, but I don’t want to start the college football season by fading the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams. The second highest comes in Ruston, La., where the Bulldogs and Panthers should be less explosive. FIU particularly looks offensively-challenged. Louisiana Tech should be better but it didn’t play at that high of a pace last year — only slightly above national average. FIU has some continuity on defense, and hopefully it’s enough to not let Louisiana Tech run wild and keep the clock ticking.
NFL (0-1, -$100): Will Miami Dolphins make the playoffs? No at +105 (SuperBook)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looks to pass before San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) caused Tagovailoa to fumble, which 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw returned for a touchdown, during the second half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022.
$300 to win $315
Seven teams will make the playoffs from the AFC. I power-rate eight higher than the Dolphins — and could even argue for nine or 10 if I really wanted to press my luck. There’s no way Miami should be favored to make the playoffs coming out of one of the best divisions in football and therefore facing one of the league’s toughest schedules. There’s a lot of hype for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa entering his fourth season, and he was electric at his best last year in his first campaign with coach Mike McDaniel. But he also missed a lot of time with head injuries, which can’t be ruled out to happen again, and saw his efficiency plummet late in the year. The rest of the league seemed to figure out how to slow McDaniel’s exotic schemes, and should carry that knowledge into this season. Miami’s defensive talent, meanwhile, remains mediocre especially after losing All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey for the start of the season. Some expect new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to be a miracle worker, but that’s a tall task in his first year. Getting to the postseason out of the AFC is going to be extremely difficult, and Miami doesn’t look cut out to make it.
Weekend betting column year to date: 78-102-3, $6,584
Weekend betting column all-time: 556-597-10, $25,093.95
Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300); US women's national team to win World Cup at +250 ($200 to win $500); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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