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The next three days will see the end of the current PGA Tour season, the last race of the NASCAR Cup regular season and the start of the final tennis Grand Slam.
Let’s bet them all. The sports world is clearing the way for football’s takeover over the next two weeks — when college and NFL get going in full — but there’s no reason not to maximize the time before the games really get going.
I’ve handicapped all seven college games happening today, but the focus will mostly be elsewhere below in this edition of Weekend Wagers. Another NFL and college bet is thrown in for good measure, but not at the expense of everything else occurring during a still-busy stretch of the sports calendar.
Read on for this week’s handful of plays. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.
Golf (5-11-1, -$670): Rory McIlroy -150 head-to-head vs. Wyndham Clark in third round of Tour Championship (STN Sports)
Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland, watches his tee shot on the 17th hole during a practice around for the PGA Championship golf tournament at Oak Hill Country Club on Tuesday, May 16, 2023, in Rochester, N.Y.
$300 to win $200
McIlroy is out to extend his record with a fourth FedEx Cup victory this weekend in Atlanta, and it's probably not going to happen. The six-stroke deficit between him and co-leaders Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland will likely be too much to overcome. But that's not going to stop McIlroy from going all out to try. And no one may be more likely to post a super-low round than McIlroy considering he's routinely conquered East Lake Golf Club throughout his career. Clark won a major this year, the Open Championship, and became one of the best players in the world but McIlroy represents another level up — especially on this course. He should be closer to a -200 favorite.
UFC (15-21, -$584): Junior Tafa by KO/TKO vs. Parker Porter at UFC Singapore at +115 (Boyd Sports)
$200 to win $230
Porter knocked out Justin Tafa earlier this year. Leave it to younger brother to exact revenge. Junior is quicker and harder-hitting, making him a tougher matchup than his brother was for Parker. The gap between Junior’s -140 moneyline price and this +115 knockout prop is far too wide. Most of his win condition comes with catching Porter, whose been finished in two of his last three fights. Junior by knockout should be something more like -110, leaving plenty of room for a wager on the main-card opener of this morning’s fight card.
MLB (12-6, $1,460): Texas Rangers -118 vs. Minnesota Twins (Wynn)
New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer throws during the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Washington Nationals, Friday, March 3, 2023, in Port St. Lucie, Fla.
$236 to win $200
The Rangers are sliding, having lost nine of their last 11 to all but surrender a lead in the American League West that it feels like they’ve held all season. Maybe I’m too stubborn and need to give up hope on the upstart contenders, but I keep thinking they’ll find a second wind. Their lineup is too talented to stay down forever. The pitchers are no slouches either as their rotation has been strengthened by the trade deadline arrival of today’s starter, Max Scherzer. The veteran got blown up his last time out, in a loss to the Brewers, and isn’t what he once was at the tail end of his career but he’s still an above-average starter. Facing a to-be-determined Twins' pitcher should be a situation where Scherzer is laying a larger price than this.
NASCAR (16-12, $3,730): Brad Keselowski to win Coke Zero 400 at 13-to-1 (BetMGM)
$100 to win $1,300
Keselowski is one of the best superspeedway drivers in NASCAR; he just doesn’t have a win to show for it in a few years. That could change Sunday. The RFK Racing driver has found some form, and now he can utilize it at a track that’s suited well for him. MGM lists two drivers with lower odds than Keselowski in Denny Hamlin (10-to-1) and Chase Elliott (12-to-1), but the latter feels like a reach. Elliott must win at Daytona to get into the playoffs but that doesn’t mean his win probability should skyrocket. Hamlin might be the only driver more likely to emerge victorious than Keselowski. It’s thin value but it feels necessary to have some outright exposure on the final regular-season race of the year.
Tennis (3-1, $670): Novak Djokovic to win US Open men’s singles at +140 (STN Sports)
$300 to win $420
The draw for this year’s final major looks highly beneficial to the three-time champion. While defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will have to battle his way to the final against some of the toughest possible competition, it looks like Djokovic has a better chance to cruise against overmatched opponents. Oh, and Djokovic just avenged his Wimbledon loss to Alcaraz in Cincinnati over the weekend. That one result doesn’t mean all that much, but it still came on a hard court to make a sports book leaving Alcaraz favored in the ensuing future market feel like a mistake. Other shops have Djokovic as low as +110 to win the US Open, which is a more accurate number.
Tennis (3-1, $670): Ons Jabeur to win US Open women’s singles at 28-to-1 (Circa Sports)
Ons Jabeur, of Tunisia, reacts after defeating Caroline Garcia, of France, during the semifinals of the U.S. Open tennis championships on Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022, in New York.
$50 to win $1,400
Speaking of off-market numbers, Jabeur is as low as 12-to-1 to win her first Grand Slam. Hard-court isn’t her best surface and there are a handful of more likely winners in Flushing Meadows, but she shouldn’t be available at this high of a price. Like Djokovic, Jabeur’s draw appears manageable. And it was only a year ago that she reached the final where she lost to world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. The Polish Swiatek is a deserved favorite to repeat, but Jabeur wouldn’t have to encounter her until a potential finals matchup. A meeting with No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka would come much sooner, in the quarterfinals, but Jabeur just upset her at Wimbledon. If Jabeur makes a run, I can potentially maneuver off this bet and lock in a profit. She probably won’t ultimately win, but her chances are better than 28-to-1.
NFL (0-1, -$100): Week 1 six-point teaser: Cleveland Browns +8 & Green Bay Packers +8 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)
Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) during an NFL football game Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023, in Green Bay, Wis.
$240 to win $200
Yes, I’ve already bet both of these Week 1 point spreads separately, but I don’t mind adding a bit more exposure. They stand out as two of my favorite sides on the opening NFL betting board, and conjoining them fits neatly within Wong teaser standards. There’s still a chance both the Browns and Packers could wind up favored before kickoff, so don’t wait to bet this. There’s been no definitive update on Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow’s calf injury, and if he doesn’t play, the Browns should really roll. The Packers, meanwhile, just look better top-to-bottom than the Bears. It’s a surprise they’re still the underdogs going into the season-opening rivalry game.
College football (0-0, $0): SMU to win the American Athletic Conference at +350 (SuperBook)
$300 to win $1,050
Not only may the Mustangs have the most talented roster in the conference, but they also have the easiest schedule. SMU has to face neither Tulane nor UTSA — the other two favorites — during the regular season to help pave its path to the AAC Championship Game. The Mustangs had some hiccups in coach Rhett Lashlee’s first season a year ago, but they were still good overall as he implemented a killer “Power Spread” offense. The only potential conference game where SMU will be an underdog this season is at Memphis late in the season. Some may ultimately favor Tulane or UTSA, but it’s no small advantage that SMU will only have to beat one of them to be crowned conference champions.
NBA (9-14, -$1,095): Cleveland Cavaliers to win the Central Division at 3-to-1 (Golden Nugget)
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) shoots against Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) during the second half Monday, Jan. 2, 2023, in Cleveland.
$300 to win $900
Bet you didn’t see this one coming. In all honestly, I didn’t expect a divisional future to be my first basketball bet of the new season either. But this price was too good to pass up. The vibes are all off in Milwaukee between Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury and recent comments, but more importantly, it just wasn’t that great this season to begin with. The Cavaliers finished seven games behind them, but that was a statistical anomaly considering Cleveland outscored opponents at a clip nearly two points per game higher than Milwaukee. The Cavaliers had some lapses because they were a young team, but should be sharper in their second season with Donovan Mitchell as the offensive focal point. The Bucks meanwhile are only getting older and will continue to far prioritize the postseason over the regular season. Watch out for Cleveland next year, and this might be the best way to build an early position on it.
Weekend betting column year to date: 81-104-3, $6,684
Weekend betting column all-time: 559-599-10, $25,193
Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300); US women's national team to win World Cup at +250 ($200 to win $500); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Florida International at Louisiana Tech under 59.5 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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