NFL underdogs used the holiday stand-alone televised spots to make their long-awaited stand against the type of favorites that had dominated the season to this point.
Favorites have still won more than 67% of games this season outright, but four straight big upsets nearly occurred from Christmas Eve’s Sunday Night Football game through the finale of a Christmas Day tripleheader. Underdogs ended up going 3-1 outright in the span with an endgame Eagles’ interception in the end zone the only thing preventing the clean sweep.
Philadelphia held on to beat the New York Giants 33-25 as 14-point favorites, but that’s more than can be said for the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers against their perceived outmatched opponents.
The Patriots edged the Broncos 26-23 and the Ravens punished the 49ers 33-19, both as touchdown underdogs. The Raiders meanwhile became only the third team this season to pull off an upset as a double-digit underdog when they started the Christmas Day slate with a 20-14 victory over the Chiefs after closing at +11 in the betting market.
Outright results may have been pretty predictable this season on a whole, but that’s flipped in the most recent group of games. If the trend continues over the final two weeks of the regular season, the NFL is in for a wild push towards the playoffs.
Read below to find my picks on every Week 17 contest. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 122-113-5.
Plays (41-29-3)
New Orleans Saints +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Imagine how much better the above record would be if I could just quit betting the Saints. But it’s going to be one more week of pain. Maybe they’re just too poorly coached and too mistake-prone but the Saints have played better than their 7-8 straight-up, 4-10-1 against the spread records. They’re ahead of the Buccaneers by most metrics including expected points added (EPA) per play (No. 10 vs. No. 21) and net yards per play (No. 14 vs. No. 23).
New York Jets +7.5 at Cleveland Browns I’ve ridden the Browns’ surge by cashing in during their current three-game winning and covering streak, and picked them six of the last seven weeks, but the market has finally adjusted to them. And it’s gone too far. The Jets still have one of the most talented defenses they’ve seen all year, especially since Joe Flacco took over, and winning by more than a touchdown in a game with a total of over/under 35 is a difficult task.
Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The end of the regular season is traditionally when the Chiefs take off under coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and that possibility shouldn’t be dismissed even after the loss to the Raiders. In fact, the sloppy offensive performance could provide just the wake-up call the Chiefs need.
Chicago Bears -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons Chicago should be getting a larger-than-usual boost for homefield advantage considering the cold and windy forecast Sunday at Soldier Field. Both the Bears’ and Falcons’ defenses have made major recent improvements, but the former’s have been more dramatic as they've been one of the NFL’s better units over the last month.
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Miami has made the strange transition from being offense-led early in the season to defense-led late in the season, and that might be a problem against Baltimore. Defenses in the mold of highly influential Dolphins coordinator Vic Fangio haven’t done much to slow new MVP frontrunner/Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers A three-point line move after switch from quarterback Russell Wilson to Jarrett Stidham was announced is a little too heavy-handed. Wilson’s slight, brief bounce back this year seemed more like a product of playing in a Sean Payton-coached offense, and Stidham should get the same boost. He shined in his first start with the Raiders exactly a year ago, and may do the same for the rival Broncos.
Leans (40-36-1)
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders’ defense has worked its way up to being a top-10 unit, but the Colts have found ways to score on almost everyone they’ve played all season — especially at home. The Raiders’ offense isn’t reliable enough to keep up in what should be a higher-scoring game.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 at Seattle Seahawks The Steelers’ injury report is noticeably shorter than most teams’ at this juncture of the season, and they could get a couple key players back this week in quarterback Kenny Pickett (unlikely but possible) and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (more likely). This would have been a play at the opening price of +4, but there might still be a little bit of room as long as it doesn’t drop to a straight 3 considering it should be a low-scoring game.
Detroit Lions +6 at Dallas Cowboys This is an awfully high number for a game between two teams that profile so similarly — Dallas is at +0.5 net yards per play on the season and Detroit is at +0.4. The best argument against the Lions is that they are due for a letdown after clinching their first NFC South title since 1993, but that’s a stretch if not just a silly narrative all together.
Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals The initial boost the Cardinals got from the return of quarterback Kyler Murray has long worn off as they’ve been highly inefficient in back-to-back double-digit losses. This looks like an ideal spot for the Eagles to get back on track after a downturn that’s seen them go 2-4 straight-up, 0-6 against the spread since upsetting the Chiefs in Week 11.
Guesses (41-48-1)
San Francisco 49ers -12.5 at Washington Commanders With six straight losses, and a 2-4 against the spread record in the span, Washington has a real claim to having been the worst team in the NFL over the last month and a half. The 49ers have still been the best or second-best despite their humbling loss to the Ravens. That large of a discrepancy should be enough for a line of two full touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills -12 vs. New England Patriots The Bills are ranked third in the league — behind only the Ravens and 49ers — by both EPA per play and the DVOA ratings. I wouldn’t advise betting a double-digit spread in a game between divisional rivals, but the roster quality between these two sides couldn’t be more lopsided.
Tennessee Titans +4.5 at Houston Texans Tennessee is playing better than the betting market is crediting it. The Titans’ last three losses have all come by three points in games where they led going into the final minutes, and in between those defeats, they pulled the biggest upset of the year in their 28-27 victory over the Dolphins in Week 14.
Carolina Panthers +6.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars This line was Jacksonville -9 a week ago, and a 2.5-point decrease may not be enough after the home team saw Trevor Lawrence suffer another injury in another dreadful performance, a 30-12 loss to the Buccaneers as 2-point favorites. The Panthers meanwhile continue to at least demonstrate progress in a 33-30 loss to the Packers as 3.5-point underdogs.
Green Bay Packers +2 at Minnesota Vikings The Vikings’ injury situation just keeps getting worse, as they lost another handful of starters in last week’s 30-24 loss to the Lions as 3-point underdogs including tight end T.J. Hockenson and blitz-happy linebacker D.J. Wonnum. The Packers are healthier, and have at least at times this season looked every bit as competent as the Vikings.
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 at New York Giants This number is exactly what I made it, but the setup is better for the Rams. Los Angeles is off extra rest off a 38-28 win over the Saints as 4-point favorites that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. New York is on a short week off a 33-25 loss to the Eagles as 14-point underdogs where it didn’t play as well as the final score indicated.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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