Las Vegas Sun

By Case Keefer

Published Sat, Jul 8, 2023 (2 a.m.)

Updated Sat, Jul 8, 2023 (9:55 a.m.)

Weekend Wagers has sat dormant for the last two weeks, but that didn’t stop the column from picking up a near $2,000 victory.

The LSU baseball team contains my newest heroes, as the Tigers ran through the competition in Omaha, Neb., to win the College World Series and cash a +950 futures bet. LSU’s bats kept booming while its bullpen settled down — as handicapped — to beat both Wake Forest and Florida in two out of three to claim the national championship. 

But there’s no time for a victory lap coming off the hiatus; the focus instead shifts to building up the bottom line further heading into football season. This week, I’ll stick closer to home including with UFC 290 where seven bets are already locked in with another shared below.

Read on for nine bets in this week’s Weekend Wagers. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (3-6, $105): Garrick Higgo to win John Deere Classic at 15-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $1,500

The South African youngster was within one stroke of the lead at the end of Friday’s round in Silvis, Ill., before an unfortunate bogey on the 18^th hole. It won’t be easy keeping pace with, and ultimately passing, 36-hole leader Cameron Young but Higgo is more than capable. He’s shown an ability to win everywhere he’s gone, whether it was in South Africa in his youth, UNLV for a college stint or the DP World Tour before securing his PGA Tour card. His win equity has largely come because he’s shown an innate ability to get hot with the putter. That’s a prerequisite at TPC Deere Run this weekend with the winning score highly likely to stretch beyond 20-under par. Higgo hasn’t even putted all that well through two rounds, but if he activates on the green over the weekend, everyone else is in trouble. The odds of that happening are far better than 15-to-1.

NBA (9-13, -$1,020): Utah Jazz to win Vegas Summer League at 21-to-1 (Circa Sports)

$75 to win $1,575

Against my better judgment, I’m going to toe into the local Summer League over the next 10 days. It can’t get much worse in this category anyway. The Jazz arrive in Las Vegas having already started their Summer League journey in Salt Lake City where they went…1-2. They’re going to need to be a lot better than that — likely 4-0 — to reach the four-team playoffs at the Thomas & Mack Center nine days from now, but they have the path to do it. No one may have drawn a weaker schedule than Utah with Denver, Minnesota, Phoenix and the Los Angeles Clippers, their four scheduled opponents. Those are four of the longest shots to win the title with talent-lacking rosters. Utah should be favored in every game with a dynamic offensive duo of Ochai Agbaji and Keyonte George. The Jazz have a good chance to get to the playoffs, and from there, I can potentially maneuver this position.

MLB (7-4, $780): Atlanta Braves -145 vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Wynn)

$290 to win $200

The Braves are red hot, having won 18 of their last 20 games, and so is their best starting pitcher, Spencer Strider. The second-year star out of Clemson leads the majors in strikeouts, and should be able to fan a Rays’ lineup that gets rung up at an above-average rate. Strider’s opposing starting pitcher, Taj Bradley, is also talented but his performances have fluctuated wildly on the season. He hasn’t seen a lineup as stacked as Atlanta’s, and may struggle navigating it.

UFC (9-10, $210): Cameron Saaiman by KO/TKO/DQ -140 vs. Terrence Mitchell at UFC 290 (Circa)

$280 to win $200

Mitchell is a late-notice injury replacement. Strike one. He makes his UFC debut out of Alaskan regional promotions where the level of competition is extremely low. Strike two. He’s facing a fighter with some real potential who’s really flashed with an explosive arsenal on the feet. Strike three. Saaiman should blow past Mitchell, and this line is bettable all the way to around -170.  UFC 290 is ultimately going to determine how Talking Points fares this week; don’t forget to check out my first seven bets from the card here.  

NASCAR (9-7, $3,120): Ross Chastain -110 head-to-head vs. Kyle Larson in Quaker State 400 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

Larson is the best driver in the Cup Series right now at everything except drafting tracks. Atlanta Motor Speedway is now a drafting track. Chastain has been better in that category, winning at Talladega last year and finishing second in both appearances at Atlanta. He’s also on top-notch current form, having won for the first time this year two weeks ago in Nashville. There’s a great deal of variance at superspeedways like Atlanta, especially with these two boom-or-bust drivers, but that’s factored into this line by too large of a degree. Chastain should be at least a -120 favorite against Larson.

NASCAR (9-7, $3,120): Ryan Blaney to win Quaker State 400 at 15-to-1 (Circa)

$100 to win $1,500

Ford dominated the Atlanta race earlier this year, and Blaney has been the fastest Ford driver all season. It makes no sense that he’s available at this high of odds while drivers like teammate Joey Logano and former teammate Brad Keselowski are around 12-to-1. Logano and Keselowski finished first and second, respectively, in March in Atlanta, but Blaney wasn’t too far behind in seventh. He started the column’s current NASCAR run, including two straight outright winners, with a victory in the Coca-Cola 600 at the end of the May and will be counted on to extend it here.

Golf (3-6, $105): Scottie Scheffler at 10-to-1 (BetFred Sportsbook at Virgin Hotel), Xander Schauffele at 26-to-1 (Circa Sports), Cameron Young at 60-to-1 to win The Open Championship (STN Sports)

$200 to win $2,000 on Scheffler, $80 to win $2,080 on Schauffele and $35 to win $2,100 on Young

I feel comfortable rolling into the final major of the year with these three golfers. Scheffler has been so far and away the best golfer in the world over the last seven months that it would feel unfair if he finished 2023 without winning a major. Look for him to close around 7-to-1, like at the U.S. Open, in two weeks ahead of the Open at Royal Liverpool. Schauffele’s price should similarly trim. He may not have a win to show for it but few golfers have been more consistent than him at majors over the last handful of years. His game is too well-rounded not to break through at some point. Young has also played well at majors and currently sits in position to win the John Deere Classic. His ability off the tee should serve him well at Royal Liverpool.   

Soccer (1-1, -$90): US women’s national team to win World Cup at +250 (BetFred Sportsbook at Virgin Hotel)

$200 to win $500

There’s nothing wrong with some blind sports-patriotism, right? Not when your country has the best team in the world at least. And, yes, the U.S. women still have the best soccer team in the world until someone proves otherwise. They are in position to win a third straight World Cup starting two weeks in Australia and New Zealand. The roster might be older and more injured but there are questions around all of their biggest challengers too. Some sharper global soccer books have this price below +200, so grabbing this much larger of a line with the added benefit of rooting on the national stars feels like a wise choice.

College football (0-0, $0): Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 (STN Sports)

$435 to win $300

New coach Zach Arnett finds himself in an incredibly difficult situation thrust into the head role following the tragic passing of the legendary Mike Leach. The Air Raid pioneer led his team to overachieve in his final campaign on the sidelines, as he so often did throughout his career. Some crashing back down to Earth was probably going to happen anyway, but now it’s exacerbated with a regime change and Arnett tweaking schemes. The Bulldogs are unlikely to be favored in any of their SEC games with their West division competition looking as difficult as ever. As a pro tip, this line is available much shorter if you’re willing to cross the border into Arizona and line shop. But this has always been a Nevada-centric column, and the -145 price is still well good enough. Mississippi State will be hard-pressed to go any better than 4-8.

Weekend betting column year to date: 59-71-2, $7,978

Weekend betting column all-time: 537-567-7, $26,477.95 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700);  Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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