Las Vegas Sun

By Case Keefer

Sat, Jun 17, 2023 (2 a.m.)

The end of the NHL season brought a bang; the end of the NBA season produced some pangs.

Weekend Wagers made out big-time with the Vegas Golden Knights winning the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in franchise history, cashing a future wager for $3,000 placed a year ago. The opposite was true with the Denver Nuggets claiming the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history, though virtually all of the column’s futures were terminated a round earlier when the Boston Celtics fizzled out.   

Luckily, the wins far outweighed the losses — especially with how high of a clip the column has been clicking elsewhere. The last two versions have gone 13-1 overall with the only loss a bet on Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at +345.

He ultimately finished second to Jonathan Marchessault.

I’m seeking one more windfall to build on the streak today. Weekend Wagers will be on hiatus the next two weeks, so making the most of the eight bets below is paramount.

Read on for eight bets in this week’s Weekend Wagers. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page. No NFL or college football plays are included but check out six recent bets written up in the Las Vegas Weekly here.

Golf (2-4, $220): Scottie Scheffler -170 head-to-head in the third round of the U.S. Open vs. Tony Finau at -170 (Circa Sports)

$340 to win $200

Watch out; Scottie Scheffler is coming. The current top-ranked golfer in the world, whom we already bet at 10-to-1 to win the third major of the year, sits five strokes back of leader Rickie Fowler through 36 holes but he seemed to settle in as Friday's round wound down. Scheffler has struggled with his putting for a couple months now, but has actually been above average compared to the rest of the field at Los Angeles Country Club. Considering he's been elite in every other area recently, that may be a sign that he's ready to take over. Finau is playing well too, and currently sits seven strokes back of Fowler, but there are only three golfers in the field Scheffler shouldn't be laying at least -200 matched up against — Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. He's got a huge advantage against everyone else.

MLB (6-4, $540): Arizona Diamondbacks +120 vs. Cleveland Guardians (Wynn)

$200 to win $240

Keep waiting for the Diamondbacks to fall off. It’s not going to happen. The betting market still seems skeptical of the National League West-leading Diamondbacks, but that’s fine with me. I’ll just keep betting them when the opportunity presents itself. That’s what’s happening here, as Arizona shouldn’t be this large of an underdog to offensively challenged Cleveland under any circumstances. Diamondbacks starter Tommy Henry is usually worth betting against, but his opponent isn’t that awe-inspiring in today’s game. The Guardians’ Shane Bieber isn’t what he once was. The Diamondbacks should be able to get to him in what looks like more of a coin-flip game than the odds indicate.

UFC (9-9, $310): Zac Pauga +170 vs. Modestas Bukauskas (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$100 to win $170

I’ve mostly focused on main event fights this year, so let’s flip it and handicap the first bout on the card at tonight’s event at the UFC Apex. As a general rule, a heavyweight matchup this deep on the preliminaries shouldn’t have this large of a line. The mediocre reaches of the division are too evenly matched, and there’s too much variance when two giant men are winging punches at each other. Bukauskas is the more accomplished fighter here, but Pauga is no slouch. He’s well-trained at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, and should be fully prepared to evade Bukauskas’ power. This will be a close fight that Pauga has a real chance to win.

College baseball (0-0, $0): LSU vs. Tennessee under 9 runs at -120 (STN Sports)

$120 to win $100

The pitching matchup for this first-round game in the College World Series will likely pair two top upcoming picks in the MLB Draft in LSU’s Paul Skenes and Tennessee’s Chase Dollander. The two squared off a couple months ago with the former’s team edging the latter’s 5-2 at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rogue, La. And that venue is a lot more conducive to offense than Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Neb., where today’s forecast calls for wind blowing in from center field. LSU might have the most dangerous offense in the country, and I’m hoping the Tigers use their bats to win a title over the next week, but Dollander has a decent chance to limit them today.

USFL (0-1, -$220): Philadelphia Stars +1 at Michigan Panthers (Circa Sports)

$330 to win $300

The column’s only other USFL point-spread play on the year lost by five touchdowns, so there’s nowhere to go but up, right? It’s the final week of the regular season, and Philadelphia just needs to win to lock up the North Division title. The Stars haven’t been great but they’ve at least been better than the Panthers, which have the worst statistical profile in the league. Philadelphia is dealing with injuries, including to running back Matthew Colburn, but is that enough to make them an underdog against a team that’s lost six of its last seven games? I don’t think so.

WNBA (1-0, $200): Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA championship at -115 (Circa Sports)

$575 to win $500

I cashed in on the latest local championship team this week, and I’m not going to miss an opportunity to join in on the next one. The WNBA was supposed to be a two-team race this year with the Aces and New York Liberty, but so far, the defending champions are leaving the new superteam behind. Las Vegas’ net rating is 17.6; New York’s is 6.9. The Aces are so star-studded that they could navigate through an injury or two if they happen to crop up as the season progresses. It sure looks like they’re going to get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, which would also be huge because it means they’ll likely only have to play either the Liberty or the Connecticut Sun instead of both. This number is higher elsewhere, and will soon rise at Circa too. Get in while it’s still possible.    

NASCAR (9-7, $3,120): William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series Championship at +750 (Caesars/William Hill)

$300 to win $2,250

NASCAR is off this weekend, so I sadly can’t attempt to hit a third straight outright winner. But let’s take the pause to lock in a mispriced future. Byron has been far and away the most consistent driver in the Cup series this year, sitting in contention virtually every week. Teammate Kyle Larson has the fastest car at its peak, but he’s also been combustible with a handful of did-not-finishes and arguably shouldn’t be sitting above Byron as the favorite. Larson won two years ago in putting together a season that looks a lot like Byron’s does right now. It’s a stacked field this year with a lot of viable contenders, but Byron is currently the man to beat.

NHL (6-8, $2,718): Edmonton Oilers to win the 2024 Stanley Cup at 12-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $3,000

Yes, I haven’t learned my lesson yet. The Oilers perennially disappoint but if they’re even a fraction as successful next year as they were to end this year, they will enter next NHL season as the best team in the league. At the very least, this number is bound to trim. There’s no way they’re available at double-digits for long. It’s challenging sharing a division with the reigning champion Golden Knights, but let’s not forget the Oilers were big favorites in the teams’ second-round showdown this year and managed to blow them out twice despite the best-of-seven series loss in six games. I found a Stanley Cup winner a year ahead of time  for this season, and might as well try again.

Weekend betting column year to date: 56-66-1, $6,583 

Weekend betting column all-time: 534-562-6, $25,082.95 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); New Orleans Breakers to win USFL title at 7-to-1 ($200 to win $1,400); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700);  Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); LSU to win the College World Series at +950 ($200 to win $1,900); Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Patrick Cantlay to win the U.S. Open at 18-to-1 ($115 to win $2,070); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

Back to top

SHARE

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy