Zhang Weili choked Yan Xiaonan unconscious in the UFC 300 co-main event, and yet officials allowed the fight to continue and therefore helped prevent it from going under 4.5 rounds.
Kyle Larson was smoking the competition in the Autotrader Echomotive 400, and then one of his tires went flying off to put him down multiple laps and take him out of contention.
The Cleveland Cavaliers more or less quit despite holding a big lead over the Charlotte Hornets in order to get a more favorable playoff opponent but sacrifice their chances to win the Central Division in the process.
I don’t know if there’s ever been a trio of bad beats in a span of less than 24 hours that hit harder than that in the four-year history of Weekend Wagers.
That’s sports betting though. You can’t fully appreciate the triumphs or understand the inherent amount of luck in the good times without gutting it out through the failures and misfortune too.
The year-to-date bottom line took a hit with all the craziness, but it’s nothing I can’t build back up. It’s a busy stretch of the sports calendar, especially with the NBA and NHL playoffs starting, so let’s take advantage.
Read on for this week’s Weekend Wagers. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.
Golf (1-4, -$302): Adam Schenk -115 head-to-head vs. Matthieu Pavon in the third round of the RBC Heritage (Caesars/William Hill)
$230 to win $200
This should be a real crowd-pleaser, a matchup between two of the lesser-known golfers in this week's PGA Tour signature event. But the pickings are slim, and backing Schenk might be the best value on the board. The 32-year-old veteran has been playing extremely well, having finished inside the top 20 in three of his last four events including the Masters, and seemed to rediscover the form in Friday's second round in Hilton Head, S.C. Schenk shot 2-under par while Pavon was 2-over par, the direct opposite of their first-round scores. But this bet is more about both golfers' long-term baseline, and Schenk's is higher than Pavon. The Frenchman is being overvalued after a torrid start to his first PGA Tour season, which included winning the Farmers Insurance Open. Schenk should be at least -130 in this matchup.
Major League Baseball (0-1, -$316): St. Louis Cardinals -119 vs. Milwaukee Brewers (STN Sports)
St. Louis Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt is congratulated by teammates after scoring during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022, in St. Louis. New AL home run king Aaron Judge and St. Louis slugger Paul Goldschmidt won Hank Aaron Awards on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022, that reward the most outstanding offensive performers in each league.
$238 to win $200
The Brewers’ offense has so far produced significantly better than the Cardinals’ offense. That shouldn’t last forever. St. Louis has too much talent, at least at the plate, to be languishing in last place in the National League Central. Today’s game is a place where they can show it going up against young, mediocre-at-best Brewers starting pitcher DL Hall. The Cardinals have a bigger edge on the mound than this line indicates with the dependable, though not outstanding, Miles Mikolas getting the start. I make this line closer to Cardinals -140, making the home team the biggest betting edge on the opening overnight board.
UFL (1-0, $200): D.C. Defenders +9.5 at Birmingham Stallions (Wynn)
$220 to win $200
Last week, I joined in on the Stallions’ hype parade and cruised to an easy cash with a blowout win over the Memphis Showboats. This week, I abandon the float and attempt to sell high on the only undefeated side in the new league merging the XFL and USFL. The Stallions are still the best team and likely to win a third straight championship (they won the USFL in 2022 and 2023) but the Defenders are something the Showboats were not — decent. DC’s offense finally got going late in a comeback 29-28 victory over Arlington as 1-point favorites last week, and maybe they can carry over the success into a new week. Birmingham should win, but there’s no justification for it laying nearly a field goal more against D.C. than it did against a more flawed Memphis side last Saturday.
Boxing (0-0, $0): Devin Haney to beat Ryan Garcia by KO, TKO or DQ at +135 (Circa Sports)
Undisputed lightweight champion Devin Haney makes his ring walk before his title defense against Vasiliy Lomachenko at the MGM Grand Garden Arena Saturday, May 20, 2023. Haney retained his titles by unanimous decision.
$200 to win $270
It’s typically smarter to ignore the prefight buildup and not let it influence your handicapping, but I just can’t escape the sideshow that’s encompassed this promotion leading up to tonight’s bout in Brooklyn, N.Y. Garcia has repeatedly shown he’s not in the right mental state to compete, most recently coming in more than three pounds overweight on Friday. Why not take a shot on the more stable and talented fighter finding a way to get it done inside the distance? Haney isn’t known as a knockout artist, but this could be different. He seems genuinely frustrated with all of Garcia’s antics and is out to prove a point with an emphatic win. If Garcia is as unprepared as he’s telegraphing, Haney will have the perfect opportunity to do so.
NASCAR (0-6, -$1,120): Kyle Larson +120 head-to-head vs. William Byron in Geico 500 (Caesars/William Hill)
$200 to win $240
Well, this is getting embarrassing. NASCAR carried Weekend Wagers in 2023, but is sinking it in 2024. Larson’s bad break added insult to injury, but I’m not ready to quit him just yet. It’s not like the freak occurrence was his fault. The 2021 NASCAR Cup champion hasn’t found much success historically at Talladega, but that’s more history that could be pretty random. There’s a great deal of variance at superspeedway tracks, so much that arguably no major driver should be this big of a favorite over another — especially teammates. I wouldn’t bet either Larson or Byron to win at their current prices — the value might be on Fords rather than Chevrolets in the outright market — but I’m always interested in plus prices in the matchups at Talladega.
NHL (3-2, $200): Vancouver Canucks to win the series vs. Nashville Predators at -150 (Boyd Sports)
Vegas Golden Knights right wing Anthony Mantha (39) chases the puck in front of Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko (35) during the first period of an NHL hockey game at T-Mobile Arena Thursday, March 7, 2024.
$300 to win $200
These odds are too short. They might look fair based on recent results, but the Canucks can’t be judged too harshly on how they ended the season considering they played almost all of it without goalie Thatcher Demko. Once the Vezina Trophy favorite, Demko carried Vancouver early in the year to help it finish atop the Pacific Division. He returned from injury for the final two regular season games and now should be back in full to face the Predators. Nashville, unlike Vancouver, played its best hockey down the stretch but doesn’t have the overall roster quality to hang with the top teams in the Western Conference. Vancouver is one of the top teams in the Western Conference, and should advance at least one round.
NBA (3-2, $200): Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP at +260 (BetMGM)
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, top, dunks as Miami Heat forward Kevin Love defends during the first half in Game 5 of an NBA basketball Eastern Conference Final series Thursday, May 25, 2023, in Boston.
$500 to win $1,300
I’m overloaded with Celtics’ futures in virtually every market personally and was alarmed to see that none of them had yet made it into this column. That changes here with the best current option to back Boston on the board. There are only rare occasions where the winning team’s best player doesn’t claim MVP honors in the NBA Finals. If Boston cruises to the title as easily as its statistical profile and conference path implies it can, this won’t be one of them. The Celtics are stacked and deep, but everything runs through Tatum. His odds to win MVP are as low as +210 elsewhere, and that’s closer to the true price. The discrepancy between the Celtics sitting at +160 to win the title and Tatum being +260 to win MVP is too large.
2024 Weekend betting column: 30-35, $1,392.87
Weekend betting column all-time: 688-742-11, $32,673.87
Previous pending wagers: Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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