Las Vegas Sun

By Case Keefer

Sat, Jan 6, 2024 (12:40 p.m.)

New year, new ledger.

That was hurtful to type, but as the calendar flips, so too does the 2023 column record. The Sunday Sweats record remains until the end of the football season at least but last year will set a high bar to clear overall.

I profited $13,567 in the column over the last 12 months, off a record of 178-188-4. A lot of futures and long shots cashed to enable the banner year.

I even went out on a high with a $375 profit last week, largely thanks to a moneyline parlay hit and a pair of player props — including the one that runs as part of the Raiders’ gameday preview.

Enough with the past; back to the present. Here’s to 2024 going every bit as well as 2023, starting with a tricky but attractive Week 18 slate.

Read below to find bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back for a Raiders’ prop bet in the gameday preview piece. 

Tasty Total (12-5, $1,202): Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants under 42 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

The whole Northeast is going to get clobbered by a winter storm, and the totals in most of the games in that part of the country have adjusted accordingly. This is the one that still has some room to shrink. Philadelphia is expected to be affected with snow today ahead of rains and wind tomorrow. That should stifle scoring at least to the point where this total should settle more around 40. The closing number on this same matchup on Christmas Day in New York was over/under 41. The game flew over with the Eagles holding on to win 33-25 but this looks like an overreaction to that result. Both defenses should have a little more success, especially taking into account the elements.  

Two-(Or Three-) Team Teaser (6-11, -$1,170): Cincinnati Bengals -1 and New York Jets +8 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

The record indicates I’ve won six of these, but that doesn’t sound right. I’ve been getting brutalized in this category and can’t remember the last win. Naturally, there are no great options on the board this weekend and nothing I’m confident in to break the slide. This will have to suffice. The Jets are a terrific teaser leg going through the 3 and 7 in another weather game that would feature little offense anyway at the Patriots. The problem comes with whom to pair them with. The Bengals are the best option and actually are in traditional teaser range (sitting -7.5) at a few other books. Unfortunately, Caesars isn’t one of those shops with the line still at Cincinnati -7 but their lower price on teasers — -125 as opposed to as high as -140 elsewhere — still makes this the best mathematical play.   

Moneyline Parlay (5-12, $1,533): Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos at +303 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$100 to win $303.33

The Packers came through in resounding fashion to anchor last week’s parlay, and look to have value for a second straight week. I never thought I’d be on an island picking against the Bears this season — especially in a game that means nothing to them — but everyone seems to be on them to drop this price to -150 at the SuperBook. That’s too low. As for the partner, I’m going back to the tried and true strategy of pairing my favorite underdog with the favorite I like the best. Denver vs. Las Vegas should be a virtual pick’em. Getting +142 on the Broncos is tremendous value. That’s bettable on its own, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s craft a Super Bowl 32 parlay.  

Player Prop (21-12, $1,862): Stefon Diggs over 59.5 receiving yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

There’s been a lot of talk about Diggs’ shrinking role in the Buffalo offense, which to me makes it sound like a perfect buy-low opportunity on the superstar receiver. You would likely have to go back years to find Diggs lined this low in the prop market. Some may say it’s justified considering he’s gone under this number in four straight games and six of the last seven, but the regular-season finale at Miami feels different. It’s such a huge game for the AFC East title that the Bills are likely to lean their best weapon. Diggs is still their best weapon. This is also a plus matchup with Miami rating No. 29 in the DVOA ratings in defending opposing No. 1 receivers. To beat the Dolphins, the Bills may need Diggs to outduel Tyreek Hill. I still think he’s capable.   

Lookahead Line (9-7, $275): Super Bowl Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers at +330 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $660

I’m forced to get creative in this category with no playoff matchups set in the stone, and therefore, no game lines to pick off. What I’ve landed on isn’t exactly bold but the price does represent value on the two No. 1 seeds ultimately reaching Allegiant Stadium to play in Super Bowl 58. Analytically, Baltimore and San Francisco are much higher above the rest of the league than this line indicates. DVOA gives this matchup a 48.5% chance of occurring. That might be a little generous, but knock off 20% of the probability and +330 still represents value. Circa Sports’ exactas, meanwhile, imply the price should be +250. I may treat this as a portfolio and add another matchup or two in the coming week once the bracket is set. But a discount price on the favorite is the best way to start that process. Stay tuned.    

Future Finding (1-6, $275): Player to score first touchdown in Houston at Indianapolis: Michael Pittman at 12-to-1 and Josh Downs at 20-to-1 (SuperBook)

$65 to win $780 on Pittman And $40 to win $800 on Downs

Here’s some more improvising with the future markets trimmed and set in place. Let’s get an appetizer before Sunday’s full slate with tonight’s big, playoff-implication game. Indianapolis is the slight underdog, but I think that should be flipped so I’m choosing to focus on it in the first touchdown market. Houston quietly has one of the best run defenses in the league, but is more susceptible through the air. Colts coach Shane Steichen’s scripts meanwhile are usually a thing of beauty with manufactured looks for his best receivers. Downs probably deserved to score the first touchdown against the Raiders last week but was caught by a defender inside the 5-yard line to set up a score by Jonathan Taylor. That could always happen again, but at these prices, it’s worth taking a gamble that one of the Colts’ two most explosive receivers break one and get loose in the end zone in a goal line passing situation.

Non-football Play (10-7, $1,754): Calgary Flames -1.5 puck line at +110 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (BetMGM)

$200 to win $220

Chicago has nobody left. News broke today that the Blackhawks will now be playing without rookie phenom Connor Bedard as the No. 1 overall draft pick broke his jaw in a 4-2 loss to the Devils last night. It’s the biggest injury uppercut in a season full of shots eaten by the Blackhawks. Betting lines almost can’t go high enough against a roster that seriously challenges San Jose as the least talented in the league. Despite all that being said, I’m not rushing to lay -225 on the Flames playing on a back-to-back presumably with backup goalie Dan Vladar in for Jacob Markstrom. I’d rather just risk it on the puck line, which I think should be at least on the other side at -110. That’s typically not the best way to approach hockey betting, but I’d rather cut down on my risk in this scenario. I don’t love this bet to say the least but I struggled to find anything else to use in this category.    

Sunday Sweats year to date: 64-61, $5,148

Weekend betting column year to date: 0-0, $0 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers NOT to make the playoffs at +120 ($200 to win $240); Boston Celtics to win the NBA in-season tournament at +950 ($200 to win $1,900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); AJ Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year at Even money ($500 to win $500); South Carolina women's basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 ($400 to win $1,800); Indianapolis Colts -1.5 vs. Houston Texans ($165 to win $150)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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