The odds on Oakland and North Carolina State facing off in one of the most intriguing round of 32 matchups would have been astronomical as recently as 10 days ago.
That’s the position the Grizzlies and Wolfpack find themselves in, however, going into their showdown to reach the Sweet 16 at 4:10 p.m. this evening in Pittsburgh.
N.C. State is a 6-point favorite in a game that no one could have ever seen coming. It’s a game that reminds of what makes the NCAA Tournament special.
Oakland owned the first day of the tournament with its 80-76 victory over Kentucky as 13.5-point underdogs that saw reserve senior guard Jack Gohlke put up a career-high 32 points via 10 3-pointers. Overall, the Grizzlies made 15 of their 20 three-point attempts.
N.C. State’s inclusion in the final 32 is even more improbable if you look back far enough. At least Oakland was Horizon League champions and therefore the conference tournament’s No. 1 seed.
The Wolfpack were the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tournament, and even trailed No. 15 seed Louisville late in its first game at the event, before then reeling off four straight wins and covers to get to the big dance. The fifth came Thursday when they cruised past Texas Tech 80-67 as 5.5-point underdogs.
N.C. State has now covered by double digits in each of its last five games. Could Oakland be the team to stop the streak?
Read below for my pick on that game and the seven others in Saturday’s round of 32 games. Games are labeled in one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The record for the tournament currently stands at 21-15 (6-8 on plays, 8-3 on leans and 7-4 on guesses).
No. 11 seed N.C. State -6 vs. No. 14 seed Oakland, over/under: 144.5. N.C. State’s bruisers took advantage of a plus-matchup against a banged-up Texas Tech frontcourt in the first half. What’s to stop DJ Burns, Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks from doing it again in an even better setup against an undersized, perimeter-oriented Oakland side? It would be unrealistic for the Grizzlies to expect to make half of their three-point attempts again to bail them out. Play: N.C. State -6.
No. 1 seed North Carolina -4 vs. No. 8 seed Michigan State, over/under: 140.5. The Spartans might have put together the most impressive performance of Thursday’s action in completely smothering a tough Mississippi State from opening tip in a 69-51 win as 1.5-point favorites. What if that continues to be the way they play going forward? It’s not out of the question, and from a talent standpoint, this game is evenly matched. North Carolina accomplished more during the regular season, but Michigan State would have been favored in this matchup at the beginning of the year. Play: Michigan State +4.
No. 3 seed Creighton -5 vs. No. 11 seed Oregon, over/under: 146. At any other point of the season, Creighton would have been around a 7-point favorite in this matchup. Oregon deserves some adjustment for the wizardry of coach Dana Altman — now 17-6 against the spread in the tournament — but this a rather major one. It’s not as if Creighton is playing poorly, having gone 5-2 straight-up and against the spread over the last month including waxing No. 1 overall seed Connecticut. Lean: Creighton -5.
No. 3 seed Illinois -9.5 vs. No. 11 seed Duquense, over/under: 148. Duquense also closed as a 9.5-point underdog at many sports books ahead of its 71-67 victory over BYU on Thursday. Sitting at the exact same number against a faster, stronger and more accomplished Illinois is a sign that the betting market has caught up to the Dukes. Illinois wing Terrence Shannon has been matchup-proof and should slice through Duquense despite its best attempts to slow the game. Lean: Illinois -9.5.
No. 2 seed Iowa State -7 vs. No. 7 seed Washington State, over/under: 129. The Cougars’ comeback victory to beat Drake 66-61 as 1.5-point underdogs in the round of 64 was no fluke. Coach Kyle Smith directed a masterclass, putting his team in perfect positions and having them keenly aware in every situation. That’s the kind of hidden edge that has elevated Washington State all year, and should have them hang with Iowa State in a game expected to take on a plodding pace. The opening price of Iowa State -8.5 was far too high, but the spread would need to move to at least 7.5 to merit a bet on the underdog now. Guess: Washington State +7.
No. 4 seed Kansas +4.5 vs. No. 5 seed Gonzaga, over/under: 151.5. Gonzaga should win this game, but it’s bound to be tight and the number has gone a little too crazy. Kansas’ offense has really tailed off overall without injured wing Kevin McCullar, but it’s still been one of the better interior defenses in the nation. Gonzaga’s Graham Ike won’t be able to feast as freely as he’s done against most other opponents recently. Guess: Kansas +4.5.
No. 2 seed Arizona -10 vs. No. 7 seed Dayton, over/under: 149. This number opened a little short — as low as Arizona -8 — but has arguably moved too far since then. Dayton showed off more than enough explosiveness in a 17-point comeback victory as closing 1.5-point underdogs against UNR on Thursday to be able to stay with Arizona for a while. The Wildcats are terrifying at their best, but the Flyers’ starting five is one of the most skilled they’ve seen in months. Guess: Dayton +10.
No. 2 seed Tennessee -6.5 vs. No. 7 seed Texas, over/under: 146.5. Here’s yet another game where the favorite should win, but the spread has just moved a smidgen too high to be comfortable. Texas hasn’t played to its ceiling defensively, but has the bodies to throw at the seemingly-unstoppable Dalton Knecht. Guess: Texas +6.5.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
Join the Discussion:
Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.
Full comments policy