John Edmunds has always known the Diplomat Apartments wouldn't last forever.
The apartment complex -- which Edmunds says is the oldest on Paradise Road -- was built in the late 1960s, and not many buildings four decades old survive in Las Vegas.
Located a half-mile off the Las Vegas Strip, Edmunds never imagined the Diplomat would fall victim to development on the Strip. But now it appears the demise of the apartment complex could be caused by a new monorail system planned by the Hilton Corporation.
But residents are hopeful that a third consultant's report released today will add further questions about the monorail's financial status and help derail the project.
On Nov. 3, the Clark County Commission approved a $600 million monorail system that will veer off the Strip and onto side streets to ultimately link the MGM Grand to the Sahara hotel-casino.
If it is constructed, the guideway would be the first Strip attraction to spill over into surrounding residential neighborhoods.
Looking out onto Paradise Road where the monorail is expected to hum along by the year 2003, Edmunds can only hope the fixed guideway won't destroy the apartment complex.
"I hope that it benefits our future land value," said Edmunds, the general manager of the Diplomat. "If we have trouble because of the train, we will seek remedies."
There are still questions, however, about whether the monorail will ever be built.
The MGM Grand-Bally's Monorail LLC must convince the state the monorail is a financially feasible project and that a $600 million tax-free state grant is appropriate. That task is becoming more difficult as more reports opposing the system emerge.
The most recent report was submitted to the state this morning by UNLV economics professor Bernard Malamud. His study was reportedly funded by the Venetian hotel-casino, which opposes the project.
Malamud echoes the authors of the first two reports -- Jon Twichell of California and Wendell Cox of Illinois -- and said the monorail group's ridership and farebox projections are too optimistic.
Malamud and Twichell, who is paid by the Desert Inn Homeowners Association, punched holes in the report commissioned by the monorail company, which is led by Bob Broadbent, a former Clark County commissioner and past director of the county aviation division.
Twichell reiterates much of what the Illinois-based Wendell Cox wrote in his study that was submitted to the state last week. Cox was funded by Mandalay Bay, whose own monorail system would not connect to the MGM Grand route.
Twichell's report says the entire Regional Transportation Commission's Greater Las Vegas transit system pulled in $25 million in 1998. In order to break even, the 3.8-mile monorail route would have to double or triple that amount.
"The monorail's fatal flaw is debt service costs four to six times greater than the (operating and maintenance) costs annually," Twichell wrote. "This is fiscally impossible to cover and bankruptcy is inevitable."
The study questions the monorail group's report that says 54,000 tourists will pay $2 to ride the new system every day when the number of visitors who take the free monorail between the MGM Grand and Bally's declined from 14,000 daily to 12,800 during the last three years.
Twichell and Associates recently conducted an informal survey at Mandalay Bay, Luxor and Excalibur and asked monorail passengers whether they would pay a $4 roundtrip fare. Of the 5,134 people questioned, 84 percent said 'no.'
The three reports will be reviewed by the state's financial advisors, the Public Response Advisory Group of Los Angeles.
So far, reports funded by groups who oppose the monorail conclude that taxpayers will ultimately be forced to fund the monorail system.
Broadbent said Friday the similarities are not surprising -- his group believes that Twichell, Malamud and Cox are working together to produce the same information.
Broadbent and his partner Cam Walker have continually defended their project, saying it is impossible to compare other cities with monorails -- as each consultant has done -- to Las Vegas.
Further, they have maintained that their studies show the monorail will be a success and taxpayers will not be burdened with maintenance and operating costs when the guideway is completed.
However, Russell Driver, chairman of Citizens for Better Transportation, said thus far his group agrees with the reports submitted.
"I don't mind having a monorail, but if it doesn't take care of the whole valley then it should be paid for by the casinos," he said. "Broadbent and his followers don't care whose neck they have to stand on as long as they get their money."
Edmunds said when he realized the monorail would be approved, he took steps to save his neck. He met with the monorail group to ensure the ingress and egress to his property would not be disturbed.
He admits his property might not suffer as much as others -- the majority of the 177 units at The Diplomat house casino employees who may welcome the convenience of the monorail.
Across the street, Desert Inn Estates homeowners are less optimistic.
Paula Quagliana, who has led the homeowners in battle for more than a year, said that during the 20 years she has lived in her Country Club Lane home, she has seen the Strip transform into a wildly popular destination.
But, she said, never before has the Strip's success threatened her lifestyle.
If the monorail is built, the tracks will come within six inches of the wall that surrounds the golf course community. And she is not willing to let that happen without a fight.
"I'm not an anti-Nevada person, I'm not an anti-gaming person," said Quagliana, who represents her neighborhood. "But this thing with the monorail and the Hilton is the most deplorable, disgusting, un-American thing I have ever dealt with in my life.
"The homeowners here will keep fighting it because it's so wrong."
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