Brian Greenspun is editor of the Las Vegas Sun.
WEEKEND EDITION
May 22 - 23, 2004
Two months ago I would have said George W. Bush would be president next year. Today I am not so sure.
In fact, if the question is asked today about who the likely winner of this year's presidential race will be, I think most people would be hard-pressed to come up with a confident answer. That's because the only person in the race who could beat George W. Bush is giving the president a run for his money. And we all know that's a whole lot of money.
By the way, Sen. John Kerry is not the man giving our president fits and starts out on the campaign trail. For sure, he is making a name for himself and a positive impression with the voters he is reaching out to, and that will serve him well if and when the electorate makes its mind up that President Bush has had enough time in the White House, but he is not the primary force against the president.
The person who, at least at this early date in the campaign, is beating candidate Bush about the head and shoulders is none other than President Bush. Who would have thought it could happen to a White House so controlled, so focused on the re-election at hand and so determined to run the presidential show its way with no room for opposing viewpoints to muck up the process? But that is what is going on and, so far, the two Bushes can't seem to get out of each other's way.
And since Nevada is one of those battleground states that will more than likely determine the winner of the November sweeps, I thought it would be illustrative of what I am talking about to put this race in the context of what is going on in the Silver State.
Last week Kerry came to Las Vegas for two reasons. The first was to address the Teamsters Convention that took place at Bally's and the second reason -- this is a constant effort during any election -- was to raise needed funds to allow him to compete against the Republicans' bulging war chest. I listened to his speech in front of a room crowded with Teamster representatives from across the country, and one of the things I heard him say gave me reason to think this fellow just might be the kind of candidate America is looking for.
I remember during the 1992 campaign that the knock on Bill Clinton was that he wouldn't tell it like it was but, rather, what he thought they wanted to hear. He quickly dispelled that notion by standing up to the left wing of his party, letting them know that he didn't toe that liberal line, and that if he were elected, things would not be Democratic business as usual. Shortly afterward, his numbers began to soar and his election was all over but the voting.
When Kerry told the Teamsters that he "was not a protectionist," he did something very similar by staking out ground different from labor's party line but right down the line with most Americans who understand that we do not live in a world full only of Americans. By the way, the Teamsters loved his speech.
Later that day, Kerry went to his fund raisers which, given the seemingly insurmountable hold that President Bush claims to have on this state from the governor's office right down to the Las Vegas Strip, were quite successful. But success is not measured by dollars alone.
What I heard from some in attendance gave me more reason to believe that Kerry had a good chance to win in November. It wasn't from the Democrats who came to listen to their standard-bearer that led me to believe this Kerry fellow stood a good chance in this state. It was from two women I have known for a very long time, both of whom have been stalwart Republican voters and fund raisers.
By the way, it is a fact of life in politics in this state that if you need to raise large dollars from a few people for a Democrat, you have to ask Republicans to lend a hand. Most times people will respond because they believe that, especially in Nevada, we need all the friends we can get, so helping both sides in the big races makes not only dollars but very good sense.
When the senator concluded his remarks, these two women made a point to tell me, after proclaiming their GOP bona fides, that they were going to start a Republican Women for Kerry group that would support the election of Kerry. They said they were through with President Bush and the direction he was trying to take this country and they wanted a brighter, fresher approach.
They, more than the Teamsters and the large dollars we collected, told me what I needed to know about this state. The real voters, the folks who swing elections, the people who vote for people and ideas and not parties, the women who almost always know more about such things than men, were making a statement. Bush was going the wrong way and they were going to do what they could to stop him!
Now, I know this is only May and that the polls will turn a dozen times between now and the election. But one of the things that won't change -- and this I know from very painful experience -- is a woman's mind once she has made it up. And from what I have learned so far, the women are changing their minds.
Whether it is about the cost of war or the price of gas. Whether it is about researching through science or researching through a person's private life. Whether it is about protecting a woman's right to choose for herself or infecting the public place with ideas better left for private contemplation. And whether it is driving the nuke waste away from Nevada's children or driving the train that will bring pain and suffering our way, the people who make the decisions in this life are starting to change their tune.
And that means the answer to who will win in November is getting too close to call. And if the people of Nevada have their way, and they very well may swing this election, President Bush is no longer the shoo-in that the gamblers and the governor once thought.
It may be time to check your hole cards, gentlemen.
archive