As pitchers and catchers were reporting to spring training a year ago, the betting line on the New York Yankees' number of regular-season wins opened at over/under 101 at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book - the highest total in the major leagues.
The Yankees fell short of that total, finishing with 95 victories after 162 regular-season games.
This year, the Yankees are again commanding the highest total of projected wins on the betting board, by a fairly wide margin.
The Hilton has opened the number on the Yankees' 2006 regular-season wins at over/under 97 1/2, followed by the St. Louis Cardinals at 93 1/2. St. Louis won 100 regular-season games in 2005 in running away with the National League Central title.
Other teams with 2006 win totals above 90, according to Hilton odds, are the defending champion Chicago White Sox at 92 (they had 99 wins in 2005); the Boston Red Sox at 92 1/2 (95 in 2005); the New York Mets at 90 1/2 (83 in 2005); and the Cleveland Indians at 90 1/2 (93 in 2005).
The Mets are expected to improve thanks in part to a revamped roster featuring additions such as first baseman Carlos Delgado, catcher Paul Lo Duca and closer Billy Wagner. The Mets' total number of wins for 2005 was set at 84, according to Hilton odds, so they came up just short last season.
With the exception of the Yankees, the three other teams with projected win totals greater than 90 in 2005 - the Red Sox (94 1/2), the Cardinals (92 1/2) and the Los Angeles Angels (92 1/2 on the board; 95 actual wins) - all cashed tickets for over bettors.
The teams expected to be the weakest in 2006, according to the Hilton's odds, are the Colorado Rockies at 69 1/2 wins, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at 69, the Florida Marlins at 66 1 / 2 and the Kansas City Royals at 63 1/2.
Handicapper Brent Crow takes a 1 1/2-point lead against professional gambler Alan Boston into tonight's final round of the $50,000 "Beat Boston" college basketball betting contest sponsored by Leroy's sports books.
Crow of sportsmemo.com has 22 contest points to Boston's 20 1/2 after six weeks. Each man makes six selections, including a "best bet," against the point spread from the Saturday college basketball board. Each successful pick is worth one point, with an extra half-point awarded for a best-bet win.
Crow and Boston bring a combined record of 39-33 (54 percent against the spread) into tonight's finale (8 p.m. at the Riviera, live on KDWN 720-AM). Their best bets are a combined 7-5 (58 percent).
Throughout the competition, the picks made by Crow and Boston have generated significant movement in the games' betting lines in Las Vegas. The line moves have been particularly noticeable because the "overnight" college basketball betting market - meaning bets taken the day before the games are scheduled - is not particularly liquid.
For example, last week Boston played Colorado State minus one point against UNLV, and the line steamed all the way to minus three in Las Vegas. He also played Utah State minus 9 against Northwestern State, and that point spread jumped to as high as 11 1/2. (As it turned out, both picks were losers.)
Those discrepancies in the line might seem small to nongamblers, but experienced basketball bettors know that each half-point is precious, so line moves of two to three points are quite significant.
Shane Mosley is a minus-170 favorite (risk $1.70 to win $1) at most Las Vegas betting shops against Fernando Vargas in Saturday's nontitle junior middleweight showdown between the former champions at Mandalay Bay.
Vargas is a plus-150 underdog (risk $1 to win $1.50 plus your original stake) in the pay-per-view bout.
The round proposition is will go/won't go 11 1/2 or 12 rounds, depending on where you shop.
Bettors might wonder how the "vigorish," or bookmaker's commission, on a minus-170/plus-150 betting line compares to that on the standard line of minus-110 each way found on most sporting events.
The vigorish, or "vig," on a regular game where bettors risk $1.10 to win $1 works out to a 4.55 percent edge for the house.
On an event with a line of minus-170/plus-150 such as this fight, the bookmaker's theoretical hold works out to roughly 2.9 percent - indicating a thinner profit margin for the house, and a better deal for the gambler.
Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at [email protected].
archive