Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev., once considered a virtual lock against a 30-year-old who has never held elected public office, is now thought to be in a race so tight that both parties have targeted it as one of the closest in the nation.
Porter's bid for a third term this November against Tessa Hafen, the former press secretary for Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, is now weighing into the national strategy of both parties as Democrats try to wrest control of the House from the Republicans, who have been in the majority for 12 years.
The National Republican Campaign Committee has put Nevada's 3rd District on its top-20 list of competitive races, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has highlighted the race in its Red-to-Blue program of 22 seats it hopes to take this fall.
"If you look at the political environment today, combined with the kind of district he has, I think it makes for a much more dangerous situation," said Amy Walter, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, a respected Washington publication.
The Cook report recently highlighted Porter's race among a dozen nationwide as having moved from the safer category of "likely" to go Republican to the more competitive "leans" Republican.
Walter said the trouble stems not so much from Porter, but from the one-two punch of running in a fast-growing district where voters have historically split between Democrats and Republicans and a souring voter mood toward President Bush and the Republicans in Washington.
"The low approval ratings for the president, the fact that 70 percent of voters think that the country's headed on the wrong track, the low approval rating for Congress, I think that's a combustible mix for the party in power," Walter said. "What this means for somebody like Porter, especially sitting in a district that is evenly divided, (is) all it's going to take here is a 2- or 3-point difference in turnout, and it could have a tremendous impact on the results."
Porter's campaign downplayed the assessment as nothing more than business as usual in the district, which has been competitive since it was created in 2002. It includes the fast-growing southern portion of the Las Vegas Valley - where as many as 5,000 new residents arrive each month.
The dynamic district with its even split between Democrats and Republicans routinely makes for a difficult and expensive race, Porter Campaign Chairman Mike Slanker said.
The district favored Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore by a scant 1,000 votes in 2000. Four years later, the district gave Bush a similarly slim margin.
Slanker noted, however, that Porter polled higher than Bush in the district in 2004, when the Nevada Republican won by 14 percentage points.
"This is his home turf, it always will be," Slanker said. "It was drawn competitive, been competitive and will always be competitive You can make the argument Jon Porter has the most difficult district in America."
The National Republican Campaign Committee won't say how much money it is willing to spend to aid Porter's campaign. The party contributed $438,000 two years ago, when his campaign cost $2.6 million. It is expected to reach up to $3 million this year.
"Nevada 3 is among 20 incumbent races that we are carefully watching," said Ed Patru, spokesman for the RNCC. "But Porter is doing everything right, legislatively and politically."
Not to be outdone, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has placed Porter's district, as well as the open seat being vacated by Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons, on the Red-to-Blue list. That means national campaign money will flow to Democrats in both districts.
"This race is a top priority for us," said Adrienne Elrod, a spokeswoman for the Democratic committee.
Porter, a former state senator and mayor of Boulder City, won the House seat by healthy margins in the past. He enjoyed a 19-point victory in 2002 and won by 14 points two years ago.
The Democrats had a hard time finding a seasoned candidate to run against him this year. When Hafen announced her candidacy in February, many observers considered her a lower-level candidate who, despite her eight years of work in Washington, had little experience to tackle an incumbent congressman.
But with Bush losing support at the polls, and Congress faring worse in the minds of many voters, Walter said, the gap has closed. "There are some real difficulties in running in this district, even as an incumbent," Walter said. "It's such a transient district, new people are constantly moving in or moving out. Getting a foothold here is not easy to do, and it's going to take more than two terms."
Another variable this year that was not present two years ago is a new activism by Hispanics in the Las Vegas Valley. Disturbed by the enforcement-only provisions of the House immigration reform bill, which Porter voted to approve, tens of thousands of Hispanics marched in Las Vegas last month. Hispanic leaders are working to convert that show of strength into votes on Election Day.
At least one longtime political observer, however, believes Porter's seat is safe. "That is just not going to be competitive," said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "Porter is a fairly strong favorite I just don't see him as very vulnerable, except to a Democratic tidal wave."
Porter has raised more than $1.3 million for the race, more than three times the amount Hafen has taken in, according to finance reports for the period ending May 31.
But with Reid's backing, Hafen has brought in almost as much in the last three months as Porter - $368,000 to his $409,000. Tonight, she will host a who's who of Nevada Democrats at a fundraiser, joined by high-profile Democratic consultant James Carville, an architect of President Clinton's 1992 election victory.
Paul Adams, chairman of the Nevada Republican Party, says Reid's backing is Hafen's greatest hope.
"There are people who are going to write the checks because Harry asked them to," Adams said. "They probably wouldn't even give a dime if she just filed on her own That's what makes her a more dangerous candidate."
Even Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., sees Porter's race as tough. "I think that Jon, he definitely has a serious race and he's taking it very seriously," Ensign said. "He's doing all the things necessary.
"He'll be fine on Election Day, but he's going to have to run a really good, aggressive campaign to make sure that he is."
archive