So you would think taking a vacation around Labor Day would be propitious timing because nothing would happen in the governor's race, right?
How wrong I was. While I was vacating the political premises, state Sen. Dina Titus and Rep. Jim Gibbons weren't observing the traditional post-primary, holiday interregnum.
A crazy poll. An attack ad. A debate schedule. All in a week?
Let me recap:
Zinged by Zogby: Those results last week by the national interactive polling firm that showed the race as a dead heat sent everyone into a tizzy and surely were mailed to prospective donors by Titus with a note that said, "See, I told you. Give. Or else."
Or words to that effect.
The survey must be taken with a pound of salt - people have been known to sign up for the survey with different e-mail addresses and the Titus campaign once criticized the pollster's methodology. But you also can't tell Zogby to pound sand because the firm has produced accurate numbers despite the controversial methodology. And let's face the reality: The race probably is relatively close - within 5 to 9 points in Gibbons' favor.
But so what? It is September, two months-plus until the election, and the inexorable demographics still loom for Titus, who has been bivouacking in the place where Democrats go to lose - rural Nevada.
The strategy of spending time in counties such as Elko (President Bush, 78 percent; John Kerry, 20 percent) or Douglas (Bush, 64; Kerry 35) or Lyon (Bush, 65; Kerry, 33) may seem brave and Daniel-like and all that. But can Titus cut down the usual margins of defeat for Democrats there, or should she just run an urban strategy and hope Washoe County (Bush, 51; Kerry, 47) proves wobbly for Gibbons and Clark provides the necessary landslide?
It's a difficult call, especially for someone down 10-to-1 in fundraising and needing to make every bit of time and money count. It still seems highly unlikely - no matter what polls say - that folks who have voted for Gibbons five times in his district suddenly will believe what a Southerner - in residence and accent - has to say about him.
It's the taxes, stupid: "One of the biggest taxers in history. Dina Taxes, er rather Dina Titus, either way she'll raise our taxes."
That's what the Gibbons spot says, a surprising cannonade before anyone could recover from the primary and enjoy the Labor Day weekend. Maybe he really is scared of the polls? Maybe the congressman is panicked? Or maybe, just maybe, he and his advisers are following one of the older political saws in the book: Define your opponent before she defines herself - especially if you have the money to do it.
Titus can't argue with the substance of the spot - she has raised taxes a lot during her nearly two decades in Carson City.
But my favorite part of the campaign's response, after attacking Gibbons for voting for a few tax measures himself, was this gem from Titus, who spent the primary season calling Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson corrupt and focusing on his "pay-to-play" style of governing: "It's disappointing to see a name-calling negative, and while that may be the way things are done in Washington, I think Nevada's voters deserve better."
Now that is funny. (A full Reality Check on this ad coming later this week.)
When is four not enough? Titus asked for six debates. Gibbons initially said three. Now they have agreed to four.
This is a tough one for Titus. I can't remember in my 20 years of covering Nevada politics anytime that there have been four televised debates. She should be thrilled with this result, although the formats may not lend themselves to the kind of gaffes she hopes Gibbons will commit. We shall see.
Despite the polls, despite the flattery of an attack ad against her, despite the number of debates, the plain fact is Titus still needs some serendipity to defeat the inexorable demographics and daunting financial disadvantage.
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