Can all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies be wrong in concluding that the Iraq war has actually increased the threat of terrorism?
This is the question we hope even the staunchest supporters of President Bush asked themselves after reading the general conclusions that intelligence agencies reached in a classified report they finished in April after nearly two years of analysis.
Titled "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States," the report is the first comprehensive examination of global terrorism by U.S. intelligence agencies since the Iraq war began in 2003. It came to light Sunday in articles published by The New York Times and The Washington Post.
Carrying the top-level designation of "National Intelligence Estimate," the report says that "the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse," the Times wrote, quoting a U.S. intelligence official.
The Times informed readers that sources for its story, more than a dozen of them, "had either seen the final version of the document or participated in the creation of earlier drafts." The top Republican and top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee now say the report should be made public, and we agree.
The newspapers were unable to obtain details of the classified report, but they did verify one of its most damning conclusions, that the Iraq war is one of the reasons that Islamic extremism and violence is spreading around the world. The report also said that the threat of terrorism has grown since 9/11, a statement in contrast to regular White House reports about significant progress in the war on terror.
While it is true that many U.S. intelligence agencies erred in concluding before the war that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein represented an imminent threat, that conclusion was not unanimous. With this report, however, we have a unanimous conclusion based on intelligence gathering that has sharply increased and improved since Bush chose to cherrypick intelligence before the war. And this time, the White House had no role in shaping the judgments of the intelligence analysts.
A growing worldwide Islamic militancy has been noted by many other reports, including one last week by the House Intelligence Committee. And they are coming at a time when other reports are detailing the severe strain under which the U.S. Army and National Guard are now operating. The Bush administration, however, remains publicly optimistic about its Iraq policy and overall plan to fight terrorism.
We hope American voters, beginning with the midterm elections, recognize spin when they hear it. The country's only hope for emerging from the crisis that Bush has created is to elect new leadership.
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