Checking Back

They looked ahead. Did they hit the jackpot?

Tue, Aug 26, 2008 (2 a.m.)

At the close of 2007, the Sun asked experts to predict Nevada’s role in the 2008 campaign. How did they do?

•••

“It’s putting us on par with Iowa and New Hampshire.”

— Las Vegas Democratic strategist Dan Hart, describing the value of Nevada’s early presidential caucus.

Analysis: The Democratic caucus did bring candidates to the state and drive up voter registration. But the endlessly rehashed story of the early primary season is that Barack Obama scored an upset in Iowa, Hillary Clinton recovered in New Hampshire, then Obama triumphed in South Carolina. What gets left out? Nevada.

Rating: Two sevens

•••

“I think it is going to be some tough going. It is going to be another year of recovery. The housing industry has some work to get back on track.”

— Ken Perlman, housing analyst with Sullivan Real Estate Advisors of San Diego

Analysis: By the end of 2007, Las Vegas housing prices had fallen to early 2005 levels. Now prices are at 2003 levels. So far, this is not a year of recovery.

Rating: One seven

•••

“It’s going to be a trying year. We have a consumption-dependent economy and a consumption-dependent tax system, which means we’re all going to feel it.”

— Jeremy Aguero, economic analyst

Rating: Three sevens

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