With caucusmania having subsided and along with it the post-Jan. 19 whining about the process, is there anything left to talk about in Nevada politics this year?
Plenty.
Sure, we don’t have a U.S. Senate race and none of the constitutional offices are in play this cycle — although that hasn’t stopped some Democrats from (prematurely) dancing on Gov. Jim Gibbons’ grave or some Republicans from (prematurely) writing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s epitaph.
Sounds ho hum, but far from it. I can think of 10 questions that make Nevada politics worth watching during the next 275 days:
1) Will the state — or the Democrats — be blue?
Buoyed by the aforementioned caucusmania and the nearly 118,000-voter turnout, along with those 30,000 new registrations, the Democrats are ebullient about their chances to erase Nevada’s red-state status. But unless they can find a way to tap into an urban strategy that garners more votes in Washoe County and creates greater turnout in Clark, color Nevada red — again.
2) Can Rep. Jon Porter survive with the worst atmospherics and against potentially the best candidate yet?
Porter has a huge money lead over ex-prosecutor Robert Daskas, but the Democrat will need to raise only half as much. Daskas didn’t impress early, but if he can mature as a candidate and take advantage in a district that may be solidly Democratic by Election Day, Porter may need to start selling insurance again.
3) Can Rep. Dean Heller, who barely won a primary and then won narrowly in the general, ride the power of incumbency to a second term?
It looks as if state Democratic Party Chairwoman Jill Derby will try for the seat again, and she swamped Heller in Washoe County last year. But Heller will be a solid favorite and if he wins, the congressman may be the strongest candidate against Reid in 2010.
4) Can the Democrats take over the state Senate, thus handing power to Southern Nevada?
It’s all about Joe Heck and Bob Beers, and Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus needs to beat one of them to swing control. No candidates yet, and neither Republican will be easy to defeat.
5) Will initiativemania overshadow Campaign ’08?
Quite possibly. A gaming tax initiative, unless the resorts can block all of them, will make it to the ballot. Gondolier Numero Uno Sheldon Adelson may get a room tax diversion plan qualified (The Adelson-Gibbons Tax Fairness Initiative?). And more, surely, are coming.
6) Will Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley be able to count to 28?
The Republicans seem to be doing pretty well in recruiting and fundraising, so it is no sure thing Buckley can pick up the extra seat she needs for a veto-proof majority, especially if any more of her incumbents retire.
7) Will there be any other races for the Clark County Commission besides the one for Chip Maxfield’s open seat?
It’s City Councilman Larry Brown vs. Assemblywoman Valerie Weber right now in that one. And while Bruce Woodbury will get his usual — and generally deserved — free ride, will anyone take on rookies Lawrence Weekly and Tom Collins? I’d guess so.
8) Will anyone be able to make sense out of the raft of judicial races?
I count 39 contests on the Clark County ballot, including two for the state Supreme Court. What percentage of the judges we elect in November will be qualified, and what number will simply have won because of money and name recognition? Can you say “Missouri Plan”?
9) Who will be participating in the 2010 dance?
Just watch all the Democrats try to sidestep talk of challenging Gibbons and all the Republicans waltz around the idea of taking on Reid. These ambitious pols are no Fred Astaires, so I would expect them to be stepping on each other’s toes throughout the campaign season.
10) Will Gibbons, who is not on the ballot, be fun to watch?
He is the most entertaining governor I have covered. No reason to think 2008 will be any different. An indictment? Doubtful. A recall? Unlikely. But even if his sophomore year is as entertaining as his freshman campaign, I still think Gibbons will go into 2009 ready for an austere (no new taxes!) session and be a favorite for reelection come 2010.
That could put a damper on whatever kind of year the ever-hopeful Democrats have. And we will get our first glimpse in just three months when filing opens. By then, caucusmania will be long forgotten and campaignmania will just be starting.
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