Beyond the Sun
Bettors can still wager on or against Big Brown in his bid to make Thoroughbred racing history Saturday, but the deadline for the optimal way to play the Triple Crown in Las Vegas might have passed.
Before the Kentucky Derby each year, bettors can find odds in Las Vegas casinos on whether a Triple Crown winner will emerge from the year’s crop of 3-year-olds. It hasn’t happened since Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1978.
This year’s odds were typical: minus-1000 (risk $10 to net $1) on the “no,” and plus-700 (risk $1 to win $7) on the “yes,” there will be a Triple Crown winner.
Whether the Kentucky Derby winner is one of the race’s favorites or a long shot, however, the odds on the Triple Crown proposition usually change substantially after the Derby, in the two weeks leading to the Preakness.
As author and handicapper King Yao points out in his book “Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting,” if a short-priced horse wins the Derby it invariably goes off as a monster favorite in the Preakness. If a long shot wins the Derby, its odds drop dramatically enough to make it either the favorite or one of the top choices in the Preakness.
The two most recent Kentucky Derby winners before Big Brown — Street Sense and Barbaro — were both heavily backed in the Derby and went off as the favorite in the Preakness.
Other recent Derby winners that went off at short prices include Smarty Jones (4-1) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2-1), who both went off below even money in the Preakness.
According to Yao, longer shots that won the Derby have their odds driven down in the Preakness in part because of media hype that fans readily buy:
• Giacomo (50-1 in the 2005 Derby) went off at 6-1 in the Preakness.
• Funny Cide (12.8-1 in 2003) went off at 1.9-1 in the Preakness.
• War Emblem (20.5-1 in 2002) went off at 2.8-1 in the Preakness.
Triple Crown bettors in Las Vegas can take advantage of the situation in one of a couple of ways.
They can bet “yes” on the Triple Crown at about plus-700 or plus-650 before the Kentucky Derby, then come back and bet the “no” on the Triple Crown at a reduced price after the Derby, potentially locking in a profit or setting up a freeroll. Or, as Yao suggests, bettors could refrain from wagering before the Derby and play the “no” on the Triple Crown after the Derby, taking advantage of the lower odds.
This year, for example, a bettor could have played “yes,” there will be a Triple Crown winner in 2008, at plus-650 in April at several properties including Wynn Las Vegas. Then, the week before the Preakness, he could have bet “no,” Big Brown will not win the Triple Crown, at odds of just minus-110 at any of several properties including the MGM Mirage joints, guaranteeing he’ll win some money regardless of the outcome of the Belmont Stakes.
This method does carry some risk, of course. It’s possible a long-shot Derby winner could buck the trend and also go off as a long shot in the Preakness, erasing any value in the Triple Crown prop. More likely, though, is the possibility a Derby winner would not race in the Preakness because of an injury or some other unforeseen circumstance. It’s something to keep in mind for next year’s Triple Crown season.
Big Brown, favored throughout his Triple Crown run, is listed at about minus-220 against the rest of the Belmont field in Las Vegas race and sports books, with the field, or all others, at plus-180. (As always, odds are subject to change.)
With Big Brown starting from the No. 1 post and second betting choice Casino Drive at No. 5, an odd-numbered horse winning the Belmont is a big favorite of nearly minus-900 against the evens in one of several propositions available on the Belmont. In head-to-head matchups, Big Brown is about minus-275 against Casino Drive, with Casino Drive minus-180 against Denis of Cork.
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