For or against? Your path to March Madness profit begins here

Thu, Mar 15, 2018 (2 a.m.)

Successfully filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket doesn’t always translate to profit for sports bettors. Take last season, for example. North Carolina and Gonzaga reached the national championship, but neither team had a winning record against the spread in the five tournament games it took to get there.

In sports books, it’s more important to know which teams signify smart investments and which hold no value. The betting market is fluid, of course, but it doesn’t hurt to take stock of the field entering the tournament. Let’s run through the 16 teams priced at 50-to-1 or less in William Hill sports books’ future odds, and determine if they’re a bet-on or a bet-against.

Virginia (6-to-1)

The top overall seed in the tournament also has the best against-the-spread record, as bettors haven’t totally warmed up to the Cavaliers’ style of suffocating defense to go with deliberate offense.

Verdict: Bet on Virginia.

Villanova (6-to-1)

The secret is out on the Wildcats, who have now been favored in 70 straight games since their 2016 NCAA Tournament championship. Even with the nation’s best offensive duo in Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, Villanova’s odds will be too inflated to justify betting on it on a game-to-game basis.

Verdict: Bet against Villanova.

Duke (8-to-1)

The Blue Devils are the most talented team in the country and might actually be undervalued for once. They’re unlucky to have lost seven games considering they’ve gone 1-6 in games decided by six points or less.

Verdict: Bet on Duke.

Purdue (8-to-1)

The Boilermakers looked like a national championship threat for much of the season, but crashed over the final month, going 6-4 straight-up and 1-9 against the spread

in their last 10 games.

Verdict: Bet against Purdue.

Kansas (10-to-1)

The Jayhawks have neither the depth nor the defense of their best teams from the past. They’re also saddled with what the odds indicate is the toughest path to the Final Four among No. 1 seeds.

Verdict: Bet against Kansas.

Michigan (10-to-1)

The Wolverines have been an enigma for most of the season, but they have an underrated coach in John Beilein—who has gone 15-6-1 against the spread lifetime in the tournament—and a stingy defense ranked fifth nationally in efficiency.

Verdict: Bet on Michigan.

Michigan State (10-to-1)

Perhaps no team is bet more aggressively every March than the Spartans, who have developed a reputation as an annual title threat despite not having won the championship since 2000. There’s no sense in paying a premium on any team.

Verdict: Bet against Michigan State.

Arizona (10-to-1)

From an efficiency standpoint, the Wildcats have by far the worst defense of any perceived contender. They’re also overly reliant on one player, which is never good, even if said player is likely top overall NBA Draft pick DeAndre Ayton.

Verdict: Bet against Arizona.

Xavier (12-to-1)

The Musketeers are one of the least-threatening No. 1 seeds in tournament history, but everyone is aware of that. That should keep their point spreads manageable for a couple of rounds before a likely exit in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

Verdict: Bet on Xavier.

North Carolina (15-to-1)

These are not the same Tar Heels who overwhelmed opponents en route to national championship game appearances in each of the past two years. They have underlying defensive issues and don’t dominate inside offensively.

Verdict: Bet against North Carolina.

Kentucky (18-to-1)

The Wildcats finished just fourth in the regular season of what has become an overrated Southeastern Conference. Coach John Calipari has taken his reputation for young teams to the extreme: Kentucky’s five best players are freshmen.

Verdict: Bet against Kentucky.

Cincinnati (20-to-1)

The Bearcats are a quiet juggernaut, having lost ony four games all season, by an average of less than six points. They terrorize opponents with defense and rebounding, a potent combination.

Verdict: Bet on Cincinnati.

Gonzaga (22-to-1)

Forget the No. 4 seed attached to Gonzaga; there’s a strong argument to make that it’s the best team in the West Region. Yes, the Bulldogs play in a weak West Coast Conference, but an average point differential of 17.4 points per game is impressive regardless of competition.

Verdict: Bet on Gonzaga.

Texas Tech (30-to-1)

The Red Raiders tailed off at the end of the season, surrendering a lead in the Big 12 Conference, but that was with star guard Keenan Evans banged up. He should be healthier in the tournament and ready to return Texas Tech to prominence.

Verdict: Bet on Texas Tech.

West Virginia (35-to-1)

The Mountaineers are known for their harassing defense, which is still intact, but they were even better on offense this year. Jevon Carter is one of the most dangerous point guards in the field.

Verdict: Bet on West Virginia.

Wichita State (40-to-1)

The market has proven too eager to back the Shockers since their Final Four appearance in 2013. They’re only 3-6 against the spread in the tournament since that run.

Verdict: Bet against Wichita State.

This story originally appeared in the Las Vegas Weekly.

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