Our predictions bombed pretty badly last year. So did everyone else’s.
That’s what was so special about the Vegas Golden Knights’ inaugural season: No one saw the run to the Stanley Cup Final coming. Can anyone accurately call for what’s going to happen in Year Two?
Las Vegas Sun is going to try as the Golden Knights head into their 2018-19 season opener against the Philadelphia Flyers at 7 p.m. Thursday at T-Mobile Arena.
Read below as we make 30 predictions, starting with overall team prognostications before getting into individual statistics leaders.
Overall record: 45-29-8 (98 points)
The Western Conference Pacific Division might be the weakest in the NHL this year, but it’s also the most evenly matched. With the exception of the Vancouver Canucks, a case can be made for every team. The standings are going to be compact, and therefore, 98 points might be enough for second place, even though that’s a total more typically slotted for third or fourth. It’s worth noting that 98 points would eclipse the Golden Knights’ win total at most non-Las Vegas sports books, where 97.5 wins is the consensus over/under. Because of fan interest locally, the Golden Knights’ win total has steamed up as high as 101.5 wins.
Home record: 25-13-3
The Golden Knights will again have one of the best home-ice advantages in the NHL, so it stands to reason they’ll perform better at T-Mobile Arena.
Road record: 20-16-5
This would be a drop-off from last season when the Golden Knights went 22-14-5 on the road.
Shootout record: 4-3
There’s no real way to project this, but anecdotally, the Golden Knights have some real shootout threats including William Karlsson, Reilly Smith and Alex Tuch.
Goals For: 262
Calling for the Golden Knights to take a minor step back means they won’t have as many opportunities for empty-netters, but overall, they should be just as strong, if not stronger, offensively than last season when they scored 272 goals.
Goals Against: 242
Defensively is where Vegas is going to be more hard-pressed to repeat last year’s production, which ranked in the NHL’s top 10 in allowing only 228 goals. The number will surely spike — the only question is by how much.
Team Shooting Percentage: 9.5 percent
The Golden Knights lack a true superstar, which is the surest way a shooting percentage can stay consistently high year over year. They’ll drift more toward the NHL average after last season’s 10.1 percent.
Power Play Percentage: 21.43 percent
There’s no real reason to expect the Golden Knights’ power play performance to fluctuate much from last year’s 21.37 percent.
Penalty Killing Percentage: 79.8 percent
If the Golden Knights are going to regress defensively, then their penalty kill will likely follow suit. They posted an 81.75 percent last year.
Shorthanded Goals scored: 6
Can’t go too crazy after the Golden Knights erupted for four shorthanded goals in the preseason, including three in a single game against the rival Sharks.
Shorthanded Goals allowed: 5
One of Vegas’ overlooked strengths last year was its discipline and knack for avoiding mistakes, a trait that should carry over.
Penalties in Minutes per game: 8
It’s not the Golden Knights’ style to engage in many shenanigans — well, with the exception of Ryan Reaves — so they should stay below NHL average in this all-important category.
Goals leader: Max Pacioretty (36)
Most people are going to pick William Karlsson or Jonathan Marchessault, but the Golden Knights’ second line has shown just as much chemistry as the first line in training camp. With five 30-plus goal seasons, the 29-year-old Pacioretty is a gifted scorer in the middle of his prime next to a proven playmaker in Paul Stastny.
Assists leader: Reilly Smith (47)
Smith, who led the team in assists in the playoffs, is the engine that powers the Golden Knights’ first line. Even though linemates William Karlsson and Jon Marchessault should score fewer than their 70 combined goals last season, Smith is going to be involved in the majority of their successes.
Points leader: Jonathan Marchessault (79)
It’s unconventional to pick a points leader who tops the team in neither goals nor assists, but the Golden Knights are all about balance. Count on Marchessault to finish second or third in both categories, and therefore, emerge as the points leader.
Average Time On Ice Leader: Nate Schmidt (22:02)
Schmidt averaged nearly two more minutes per game than any other skater last season, and there’s no reason that will change once he returns from a 20-game suspension to start the year. The Golden Knights are still going to lean on him in a major way.
Blocked shots leader: Brayden McNabb (184)
Here’s another one where there’s point in going against last season where McNabb led the team with 176 blocks during even-strength play.
Hits leader: Brayden McNabb (165)
McNabb is a bruiser, and isn’t changing his physical style anytime soon.
Fights leader: Ryan Reaves (4)
The Golden Knights had only eight fights last season, and Reaves might be the only one interested in boosting that number this year.
Breakout player: Colin Miller
A power-play staple and solid defender, Miller was an underrated asset last year who grades out highly by shot metrics. He’s going to have a chance to shine early with an increased role during Nate Schmidt’s suspension. If the Golden Knights overachieve for the second straight year, an emergence from Miller will be a big reason why.
Disappointing player: William Karlsson
Karlsson will remain one of the Golden Knights’ best players; he just set the bar to unreachable heights in his first season in Vegas. He put up career highs in virtually every category with some unsustainable statistics, like scoring 43 goals on a 23.4 shooting percentage.
Marc-Andre Fleury’s record: 28-20-4
Conventional wisdom is that Fleury will play significantly more than the 46 regular-season games he did a year ago, but that’s presumptuous. Yes, he was out for an extended stretch because of an injury, but the Golden Knights will also be cautious not to overwork the 34-year-old face of the franchise.
Marc-Andre Fleury’s save percentage: .914
Fleury figures to revert toward his career average after posting a career-high .927 last season.
Marc-Andre Fleury’s Goals against average: 2.66
Fleury had a 2.24 gaa last year, but again, it’s incredibly difficult to maintain a career-year pace.
Malcolm Subban’s record: 16-9-3
The Golden Knights believe in Subban as their backup goalie, and won’t be hesitant to use him as he long he stays healthy.
Malcolm Subban’s save percentage: .913
Some measured improvement can be expected out of the 24-year-old, second-year NHL professional.
Malcolm Subban’s Goals against average: 2.85
This would be an increase of last year’s 2.67, but it won’t be on Subban, who will face more shots.
Pacific Division Standings: 1) Anaheim 2) Vegas 3) San Jose 4) Calgary 5) Arizona 6) Edmonton 7) Los Angeles Kings 8) Vancouver
The Ducks are 10-to-1 to win the division at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, which is superb value. They finished second last year despite being ravaged by injuries and have the division’s best two-deep in goal, with John Gibson and Ryan Miller. San Jose and Vegas might be more talented, but Anaheim has a much better shot than the odds imply.
Golden Knights' playoff result: Beat San Jose in 7 games in the Western Conference quarterfinals; lose to Anaheim in 6 games in the Western Conference semifinals
This season feels destined for a tense Vegas vs. San Jose playoff series — it just might come a round sooner than everyone expects.
Stanley Cup: Nashville Predators over Pittsburgh Penguins in 6 games
Speaking of great value at 10-to-1, that’s also Nashville’s over-inflated price at the Superbook. The Predators are coming off winning the President’s Trophy and shouldn’t be considered a secondary contender just because they fell to the Jets in a close 7-game Western Conference semifinal series last year.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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