Elite action: The nation’s top teams dominate our 2019 College Football Betting Awards

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Richard Shiro / Associated Press

Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons (11) and Denzel Johnson react after making a defensive play during the first half of a game against Florida State in Clemson, S.C.

Thu, Dec 12, 2019 (2 a.m.)

A wide gap separated the best teams in college football from everyone else this regular season—but not in the exact way most anticipated coming into the year.

The preseason consensus was that Clemson and Alabama were a cut above the competition and destined to meet in the College Football Playoff for the fifth straight year. Clemson kept up its end, going 13-0 and winning the ACC, but Alabama fell off by its standards with a 10-2 record. Other teams were waiting to take the Crimson Tide’s place among the elite, though, with LSU and Ohio State filling the void with undefeated dominance.

Our fifth annual College Football Betting Awards illustrates the disparity rampant through college football. In contrast to past years, when more under-the-radar sides emerged as the most profitable in sports books, the majority of the best teams to bet on this season came from college football’s upper crust.

Here are our 2019 College Football Betting Awards.

Team of the Year: Clemson

(Team with the nation’s best record against the spread)

• Last year’s winner: Washington State

• The defending national champions might have started relatively slowly, with a 3-2 against-the-spread record, but they’ve been a money-printing machine for bettors ever since. The Tigers’ only non-cover since their first five games came in a 59-14 win over Wofford where they were 48-point favorites. Technically, Clemson’s 10-3 against-the spread record is tied with Central Michigan for best in the nation, but the Tigers get the nod in this category for doing it at a higher level. They were favored in every game this season, by a national-high average of 31.5 points per game and still hardly encountered any trouble. Clemson has opened as a 2-point favorite for its national semifinal matchup against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Achievement Award: Louisiana-Lafayette

(Team that furthest eclipsed its over/under preseason win total)

• Last year’s winner: Cincinnati

• It’s no coincidence that Louisiana-Lafayette coach Billy Napier’s name has showed up on lists of candidates for higher-profile jobs this offseason. The former Alabama and Clemson assistant has turned the Ragin’ Cajuns into one of the best Group of Five conference teams in only two years on the job. He led Louisiana-Lafayette to the Sun Belt Championship Game in his first season a year ago, but the team was supposed to take a step back this year—at least in the eyes of oddsmakers, who set the Ragin’ Cajuns’ over/under win total at 6 victories. Napier needed only seven weeks to eclipse that mark en route to finishing 10-3 straight-up. The Ragin’ Cajuns are also 18-8 against the spread in two years under Napier and will look to boost that mark as 14-point favorites against Miami (Ohio) in the LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.

Covering Streak of Excellence: Baylor

(Team that holds the longest winning streak against the spread)

• Last year’s winner: Vanderbilt

• Baylor just missed becoming the most unexpected participant in the history of the College Football Playoff, as it likely would have made the four-team field if not for an overtime loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Bears’ only two losses came to the Sooners, but Baylor covered in both of them—a 34-31 defeat in November as an 11-point underdog and the aforementioned 30-23 setback as a 9-point underdog—as part of a five-game against-the-spread winning streak to end the season. The Bears went 4-0 versus the number as an underdog this season (also beating Iowa State and Oklahoma State outright), and will have a chance to add to that tally when they get 7.5 points against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

• • •

The final three awards are more subjective, but chosen after careful consideration from closely monitoring the betting market all season.

Bettors’ Choice: Ohio State

(Team that made the most money for gamblers through point-spread victories)

• Last year’s winner: UCF

• Gamblers were quick to realize Ohio State, which will play in its third College Football Playoff after an undefeated regular season, was among the best teams in the nation this season—quicker than oddsmakers. After Ohio State blew out Cincinnati 42-0 as a 14-point favorite in Week 2, it was among the most popularly bet teams on a weekly basis. Bettors reaped the rewards, as Ohio State went on an eight-game covering streak midseason where it won by an average of 45 points per game.

Bookmakers’ Choice: Auburn

(Team that made the most money for the house through point-spread victories)

• Last year’s winner: Rutgers

• The regular season began and ended with Auburn coming through for the house after liability mounted on the opposing side in the biggest game of the week. In Week 1, the Tigers scored a late touchdown to beat Oregon 27-21 as a 4-point favorite. In week 14, Auburn beat archrival Alabama outright, 48-45, as a 3.5-point underdog. In between, the Tigers also had a fortuitous cover against the No. 1 team in the nation, playing LSU closer than anyone else did in a 23-20 loss as an 11.5-point underdog.

Underdog of the Year: Kansas State

(Team that performed the most exemplary with the odds stacked against it)

• Last year’s winner: Northwestern

• The Wildcats came into seven games as underdogs this season. They won five outright and covered in all but one. That includes arguably the biggest upset of the year in college football, Kansas State’s 48-41 win against Oklahoma as a 24-point underdog. Not much was expected in coach Chris Klieman’s first season, as the Wildcats had an over/under win total of 5.5. But keeping with their tendency to defy the odds, they went 8-4 to finish in the upper half of the Big 12 standings.

This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.

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