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While this isn't technically the beginning of the Mountain West schedule — UNLV opened league play with a game at Fresno State on Dec. 4, and most of the MWC teams have logged two contests — this is still a good time to gauge what the conference looks like as we head into the final two-plus months of the season.
Here's how the conference is shaping up:
Can anyone beat San Diego State?
The Aztecs have established themselves as the team to beat, as they tore through non-conference play and now sit at 13-0 (2-0 MWC). San Diego State is ranked No. 13 in the nation and the team is for real; SDSU ranks No. 23 in halfcourt offensive efficiency (0.958 points per possession) and No. 5 in halfcourt defense (0.685 PPP allowed). It's a squad that does just about everything well.
Utah State may be the defending league champion, but San Diego State is clearly the favorite at this point.
Can Utah State repeat?
Speaking of the champs, don't count out Utah State completely just yet. The Aggies are 13-2 and 2-0 in the league, and that's been done mostly without sophomore center Neemias Queta, who is battling injury and has played just 72 minutes.
Last year with Queta protecting the rim, Utah State allowed 0.966 points per possession on shots around the basket, which ranked No. 6 in the nation; without him this year the Aggies are allowing 0.995 PPP, which ranks No. 62 — still good, but not as elite as when Queta is playing.
Even with Queta's spotty attendance, Utah State has been holding opponents to 38.2-percent shooting, the 29th-best mark in the country. Once he comes back at full health, it's going to be tough to score on this team.
Where does UNLV fit in?
It looks like there are four distinct tiers in the Mountain West right now:
Contenders
San Diego State, Utah State
In the running
UNR, New Mexico, Boise State
Chum
UNLV, Fresno State, Air Force, Colorado State
Sadness
Wyoming, San Jose State
Is there any wiggle room for UNLV to move up or down? Possibly. If New Mexico takes a nosedive due to suspensions (see below) and the Rebels come on strong, those teams could flip. But given UNLV's extreme struggles on offense — 0.831 points per possession in halfcourt situations, No. 237 in the nation — it's hard to see the Rebels seriously threatening any of the league's top teams.
What's going on in Reno?
Eric Musselman ditched UNR in the offseason and bolted for Arkansas, but he didn't leave the cupboard bare. There are still some talented leftovers on the roster, and new coach Steve Alford is experienced enough to win with a guard trio of seniors Jazz Johnson (16.9 points) and Lindsey Drew (13.0 points) and junior Jalen Harris (17.2 points).
Harris, Drew and freshman center K.J. Hymes are all good defenders, according to advanced metrics, and Alford's team is still shooting like Musselman's UNR squads, as the Pack rank No. 32 in the nation at 38.0 percent from 3. Good defense and good 3-point shooting is always an effective blueprint for winning games, and as much as Rebels fans may not want to hear it, it appears UNR can do both.
Who are the dark horses?
New Mexico looked like a legitimate contender in the league crown, but there's trouble in Albuquerque these days. Starting guard J.J. Caldwell has been suspended indefinitely following a domestic battery arrest, while starting forward Carlton Bragg has also been suspended indefinitely for an unrelated, undisclosed transgression. So that'll put a dent in the Lobos' hopes, but pending how those cases shake out this is still a team that could make some noise later in the season.
The other team to watch is Boise State, which is led by the backcourt of senior Justinian Jessup and junior Derrick Alston. They are combining to score 36.6 points per game while making 5.7 3-pointers per game; any team with guard play like that has a puncher's chance.
Who is the best player in the league?
San Diego State's top dog is junior guard Malachi Flynn (15.5 points, 5.4 assists), but the two favorites for Player of the Year have to be Sam Merrill of Utah State and Derrick Alston of Boise State. Merrill, the defending POY, is averaging 17.7 points and shooting a blistering 44.9 percent from deep, while Alston is dropping 21.4 points.
As mentioned above, Neemias Queta may be the most dominant player in the league, but at this point it's looking unlikely that he'll be healthy enough to make a run at any individual awards.
How many bids?
The Mountain West is never guaranteed anything more than its automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, but this year it looks like the league is solidly a two-bid league, at minimum. San Diego State is pretty much a lock to get in, either as the champ or as an at-large team, and Utah State could play its way into at-large status as well.
If SDSU and Utah State earn at-large bids and a third team wins the MWC tourney, that puts the league's ceiling at three teams. If San Diego State wins the league and sweeps Utah State in the process, it's possible USU could get left out and the Aztecs are the conference's lone rep in the NCAA's.
When will we know about UNLV?
The Rebels face a good sampling of opponents in the first two weeks — home games against Utah State and Air Force, followed by road games at Boise State and Wyoming — so it shouldn't take long to figure out what kind of team UNLV is. If the Rebels go 2-2 during that stretch, it's probably a sign that this is a middle-of-the-pack team, just as they were picked to finish in the preseason poll. If the Rebels go 3-1 with an upset over either Boise or Utah State, then maybe this team is something to get excited about. If they go 1-3 or 0-4, you can pretty much move on to 2020-21.
Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.
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