Vegas Golden Podcast
One-goal losses
Justin Emerson and Case Keefer try to determine how concerned the Vegas Golden Knights should be as their troubles continue with three losses in a four-game road trip.
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The Golden Knights are in the midst of an extended slump, with a 11-11-4 record that has them clawing for a spot in the playoff a third of the way through the season. But there’s plenty of reason to give thanks for the good on the team.
On Thanksgiving, we take a look at the positives around the Golden Knights, whether that’s individual players or reason for hope.
Max Pacioretty’s return to form
Last year was a disappointing one for Vegas’ prized offseason acquisition. Max Pacioretty had 22 goals and 40 points, which ranks among the worst rates on a per-game basis in his career. This year, he’s on pace for the best point total of his career as he is tied for the team lead with 23 already.
Through 26 games, Pacioretty has just eight goals, which puts him on pace for 28.5 goals, the most he’s had in three years. But the biggest change in his game has come in his play-making, as he already has registered 15 assists. That’s a 47-assist rate over 82 games, and his career-high is 34. His career-best for points is 67, and he’s on pace for 72.5 this year.
The Golden Knights expected a 30-plus goal scorer when they acquired him from Montreal. But if Pacioretty comes just shy of that and reaches 70 points for the first time in the NHL, they’ll be thankful for that as well.
Shea Theodore’s defensive step forward
The narrative around defenseman Shea Theodore is that while he’s talented in the offensive zone, he has struggled in his own end. He’s doing everything he can to put that to bed this season.
This year, Theodore is allowing fewer shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, expected goals and most importantly, goals, on a per-60 basis at 5-on-5 than at any point of his career, according to Natural Stat Trick. He’s doing so without sacrificing offense, as all his peripheral offensive numbers are also up.
What’s down currently is Theodore’s on-ice goals for numbers, as well as his individual point totals. He’s taking fewer shots than he ever has while his expected goals numbers have remained steady.
Expect the offense to come, as the Golden Knights are thankful Theodore is turning into the lock-down defenseman they hoped for when they gave him a seven-year extension last September.
William Karlsson and Reilly Smith’s penalty kill
When William Karlsson and Reilly Smith are on the ice together short-handed, the Golden Knights have allowed three goals and scored four. No players in the league who have as much penalty-killing time have that kind of success rare, and in fact Karlsson, Smith, teammate Deryk Engelland and Nashville’s Dan Hamhuis are the only players in the league who have been on the ice for four short-handed goals this season.
With those two are killing penalties, the Golden Knights have allowed 48.2 scoring chances per 60 minutes, compared to 58.6 when they are not on the ice. Every team has a disadvantage short-handed, but Karlsson and Smith mitigate that disadvantage better than any pair of Golden Knights. Be thankful for one of the league’s best penalty-killing duos.
Last year’s history
The Golden Knights enter Thanksgiving with a 11-11-4 record in 26 games, good for 26 points and a 50.0 points percentage. Last year at Thanksgiving they were 10-12-1 with 21 points and a 45.7 points percentage.
That’s not to say past is prelude, but the Golden Knights were statistically a better team at the holiday a year ago. The downside is that they have played six more games going into Thanksgiving, and after 27 games last year they were 14-12-1, a points percentage of 53.7.
No matter how you slice it, the Golden Knights are in a similar spot than they were a year ago and turned it around then to cruise into the playoffs. Of course this time there’s no Nate Schmidt return or Mark Stone arriving in a trade to bolster the team, but this is a time for thanks and hope.
Marc-Andre Fleury doing his thing
Marc-Andre Fleury made a save last week against Toronto that will go down as one of the best in his illustrious career. He has continued to be a gift for the Golden Knights, single-handedly willing them to wins early in the year and keeping them afloat.
Vegas has won just one game not started by Fleury, and Fleury has been up to the task. He leads the league in games played and among goalies who have started at least half of their team’s games, his .919 save percentage sits just outside the top 10 in the league.
Fleury’s .946 save percentage on the penalty kill leads the league and his 8.23 goals saved above average ranks second. At all strengths he has 6.42 goals saved above average. If you think things are bad with the Golden Knights, think about where they would be if not for Fleury.
Justin Emerson can be reached at 702-259-8814 or [email protected]. Follow Justin on Twitter at twitter.com/@j15emerson.
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