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How excited should fans be about UNLV basketball in 2020-21? It depends on how much you believe in T.J. Otzelberger.
In his first year as head coach, Otzelberger took over a team with a mismatched roster last season, and there were some ugly stretches when it appeared the team was totally beyond repair. But by the end of the season, things had come together to the point where UNLV was playing better basketball than anyone in the Mountain West.
If you credit Otzelberger’s system and play style for the turnaround, then you should be very high on UNLV heading into this season, because the 2020-21 roster is much better suited to play the kind of basketball that toppled San Diego State on the road in February and looked like a contender heading into the conference tournament (before injuries sapped their chances).
Much of the roster is made up of new additions, and while freshmen and juco transfers are difficult to project to the Division I level, an offseason of studying the newcomers has given me a little confidence in shaping this lineup forecast. And if you have faith in the coaching staff to get them acclimated and playing their best team ball at the end of the year, then you have to like UNLV’s chances in the Mountain West.
Let’s take a look at how the lineup and rotation could shake out:
STARTING LINEUP
Guard: Marvin Coleman, junior
What a ride it has been for Coleman over the last couple years, as he’s gone from a walk-on afterthought to a lock as the starting point guard for his hometown team. He’s earned it. The coaching staff loves the tone he sets with his leadership, and he made just enough of his jumpers last year (32.4 percent from 3-point range) to be an asset on the court. Coleman’s role will be to facilitate for the backcourt’s other two high-usage guards, but if he continues to hone his outside shot and can get up to 37 or 38 percent from deep, this spot is looking fine for 2020-21.
Guard: David Jenkins, junior
This spot has been earmarked for Jenkins for more than a year now, since he committed to UNLV as a transfer in May 2019. He can handle the ball and pass well enough to help run T.J. Otzelberger’s system, but it’s Jenkins’ otherworldly shooting ability that should take the UNLV offense to a new level in 2020-21. With Jenkins taking seven or eight 3-pointers a game and hitting better than 40 percent, opposing defenses will be stretched to the breaking point.
Guard: Bryce Hamilton, junior
Hamilton exploded over the second half of last season and appears poised for a superstar campaign. No one stands to benefit from spread-out defenses more than the slithery lefty, who got to the rim at will and shot 55.3 percent on 2-pointers during Mountain West play. It may take some time for Jenkins and Hamilton to learn how to mesh their styles — Jenkins says it won’t be an issue — but once everyone clicks, UNLV’s backcourt trio should be the best in the conference.
Forward: Edoardo Del Cadia, junior
The last time I did a lineup projection, Moses Wood was penciled into this starting forward spot. That was before diving into each player’s individual strengths and weaknesses, however, and an offseason of studying has led me to move Del Cadia to the front of the line at power forward. His offensive skill will make UNLV more varied, and the juco product is a better defender than Wood. When Otzelberger wants a more conventional lineup, Del Cadia will get the call.
Center: Mbacke Diong, senior
Diong’s lack of offensive ability stood out on last year’s squad because the team was in dire need of playmakers, but the upgraded 2020-21 roster should allow UNLV to devote major minutes to a defensive-minded center. While everyone else handles the scoring, Diong can focus on the things he does well: moving his feet in space, rebounding and protecting the rim.
BENCH (Rotation)
Guard: Nick Blake, freshman
When looking at possible lineups, one intriguing idea would be inserting Blake at “power forward” and prominently utilizing a four-guard attack. Blake is big enough (6-foot-6) to consider it, and his driving and open-court ability could really shine in small-ball settings. Of course, Blake will have to prove he can ball first, but expect UNLV to experiment with the talented freshman.
Forward: Devin Tillis, freshman
Projecting Tillis to the college level is tough. He might be the worst athlete on the roster, but at the same time there are things he is exceptional at (like reading the floor, passing, shooting, taking charges, etc.), and those just happen to be skills that Otzelberger values very much. An optimistic analysis has him carving out a niche as a freshman.
Forward: Moses Wood, sophomore
Wood can absolutely shoot the ball; he made 37.3 percent of his 3-pointers as a freshman at Tulane, and his redshirt year has given him even more time to fine-tune his mechanics. The issue will be on the other end of the floor. I moved him out of this projected starting lineup after taking a closer look at his defensive performance at Tulane, and I suspect the UNLV coaching staff will take a similar tack: Wood can be a valuable floor-stretcher, but ultimately his defense will determine his playing time.
Center: Jhaylon Martinez, freshman
One thing the roster might be lacking is size in the frontcourt. Diong is the only true center on the roster, so Martinez (6-foot-11) should get an opportunity to earn rotation minutes simply based on his measurables. If he can give UNLV 8-10 minutes a night as a backup big and not hurt the team, that’s not bad for a freshman.
BENCH (Depth)
Guard: Donavan Yap, freshman
It wouldn’t surprise me if Yap ends up in the regular rotation this year. His upside as a shooter is considerable, and if he makes a bunch of 3’s you can bet Otzelberger will find a way to incorporate him into the game plan.
Guard: Isaac Lindsey, freshman
Lindsey probably belongs in the “redshirt” tier, based on the fact that he’s in a very crowded backcourt and recovering from an injury that cost him almost all of his senior year of high school. But with so many freshmen on the roster, nothing is set in stone. That leaves the door open for Lindsey to surprise.
Forward: Reece Brown, freshman
Another potential redshirt candidate, Brown appears to need a little polish before he’s ready to contribute to a Mountain West contender. If things break right, though, his defensive ability could allow him to carve out a small role.
REDSHIRT
Guard: Caleb Grill, sophomore
Grill has petitioned the NCAA for a waiver to gain immediate eligibility, but there has been no ruling yet. The coaching staff is high on his backcourt defense as well as his shooting touch, despite the fact that he only hit 25.0 percent of his 3’s last year at Iowa State. If the NCAA gives him the green light, Grill would be in the conversation for fifth starter/sixth man.
Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.
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