As Las Vegas bakes under an ever-warming sun and Lake Mead, our primary water supply, sinks lower and lower, many of us have thought about the future. Are the summers just going to get warmer? Is Lake Mead just going to get lower?
In a recent Las Vegas Sun op-ed, Andrew Woods and Stephen Miller from the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research make a case for Congress to pass the Clark County lands bill, also known as the Southern Nevada Economic Development and Conservation Act. Their justification? Forecasting done by CBER that shows that Clark County will grow by 1 million residents by 2060.
I’m not a demographer, so I won’t question the underlying modeling and assumptions that went into the forecast. However, I challenge the Auguste Comte quote recited in the piece, “Demography is destiny.”
We are not powerless. I would argue that, given the magnitude of the crises we face, we must take the bull by the horns. Our fate is in our hands.
The searing heat waves and devastating drought of this summer are due to human-caused climate change, specifically due to burning fossil fuels. Scientists have been clear that what’s required to address climate change — to stop burning fossil fuels — will be more than just swapping out electric vehicles for our current ones or swapping out solar panels for coal plants. What’s required is a fundamental change to how we live our lives and the types of places we live them in.
Urban Clark County has grown based on a pattern of development sprawling outward at relatively low density, consuming pristine desert land at a dizzying pace. This development has focused exclusively around the automobile as the central mode of transportation for the public. As folks who ride public transit in Clark County know, this town was built for cars.
This type of development has also contributed to the urban heat island effect, when an excess of paved surfaces absorbs heat; meaning that temperatures in the Las Vegas Valley are hotter than the surrounding desert, and it stays hotter here longer into the night. This heat island effect has been shown in numerous studies to be far more pronounced in neighborhoods with lower incomes and with more people of color.
And what about the water that will be consumed by the 1 million new people? Future outlooks on the Colorado River envision more cuts to our state’s allocation of our most important water supply and the likelihood the region will need a new source to augment Lake Mead in the coming years.
Building a car-focused city of single-family homes is the type of development and consumption of resources that has led us to the climate chaos we are currently experiencing. Getting our emissions to net-zero and turning back the dial on climate change will require a whole new way of doing business — a new way of development, new ways of consumption.
However, the lands bill proponents made the vague assertion that “businesses require large parcels of land,” and thus they draw the conclusion that the Clark County lands bill is the way to accommodate the incoming population boom.
The implication is, “we’re running out of land,” but such a thing couldn’t be further from the truth. Anyone who’s ever driven around this valley knows of the vast parcels of undeveloped land right in the middle of our neighborhoods. The southwest valley still has tens of thousands of acres of undeveloped land. Now, it may be that there isn’t room for another Summerlin-sized master-planned community in the valley, but are we trying to accommodate growth while we stop the climate crisis or are we trying to make a few more bucks for the real estate developers?
What we need is a new vision — a Clark County that isn’t focused on car-oriented development and single-family homes. We need to focus on transit-oriented, infill development. It will be more dense — but denser residential development is better for our climate, with efficiencies gained for cooling and heating that can’t be had in single-family homes.
We need a massive investment in public transportation. And not just a new bus lane on Maryland Parkway or some expensive, misguided underground loop serving only tourists, not residents. We need a huge build-out of new options: A light rail system across the valley, to whisk you from your home to work to dinner and a show and back.
We need justice in our development — to break down the barriers that came from red-lining and historical marginalization of communities of color. Building new master-planned communities for affluent people outside of the Las Vegas Valley will only serve to widen the gap of inequality in Clark County and the cities of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, and Henderson; while shunting resources away from the urban core.
Demographers might have you believe that we are powerless to control our future. But our fate is in our hands. We may not be able to stop the people from coming, but we can plan for our future in a way that promotes justice, eliminates carbon emissions, and preserves the desert land that makes Southern Nevada great.
Chris Giunchigliani is a former Clark County commissioner and former Nevada assemblywoman.