Dodging the odds: 5 futures bets to make for baseball season that don’t involve the presumed champs winning again

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Sue Ogrocki / AP

Los Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts celebrates after a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the eighth inning in Game 6 of the baseball World Series Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2020, in Arlington, Texas.

Thu, Mar 25, 2021 (2 a.m.)

The LA Dodgers have ruined the usual futures-betting fun going into the 2021 Major League Baseball season.

After winning the World Series in last year’s pandemic-shortened season, LA only got stronger by signing reigning Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer to a roster that already resembled that of an All-Star team. The Dodgers’ dominance both on the field and in free agency has their odds to win this year’s World Series sitting in rare territory.

They’re a consensus 2-to-1 favorite to become back-to-back champions, the lowest futures price on a team coming into the season since the 2003 New York Yankees—who won 101 games but lost to the Florida Marlins in the World Series. The betting market expects the Dodgers to be even better than that Yankees squad, with an over/under win total of 103.5 games.

Given LA’s talent advantage over the rest of the league, it’s not an outrageous expectation. Not only do the Dodgers’ lineup and rotation appear to be without weakness, but unlike most past World Series favorites coming into the season, LA has the depth to endure injuries to star players.

This season therefore doesn’t feel like a traditional one, when it’s wise to begin building a futures portfolio with teams at mid- to long-range odds. Just taking the Dodgers at the short price, however, is also neither fun nor advisable.

There are better uses for a betting bankroll than locking up a large chunk of money for six months to turn a relatively small profit. Baseball produces more parity than is often advertised, especially in the playoffs, when short series lengths wreak havoc and increase luck. Just ask the aforementioned early-2000s Yankees, who were also preseason 2-to-1 favorites ahead of postseason losses in 2001 and 2002.

This doesn’t mean it’s necessary to sit out of preseason baseball action altogether. Sportsbooks like the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and Circa Sports open several seasonlong betting options beyond the World Series, making it easier to find value.

Here are five bets worth making at one of those two shops to get your futures fill without having to fade the Dodgers or back them at excessive prices.

Cincinnati Reds to win the National League Central at +425 (Circa)

The growing debate over which team should be favored to win the division—the St. Louis Cardinals or the Milwaukee Brewers—mistakenly leaves out a viable third candidate, the Reds.

Cincinnati underperformed last season, specifically on offense, as free-agent additions Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas adapted to their first seasons in Cincinnati. But don’t forget, last season was only 62 games long. More was expected from the Reds’ offense, and they’ll have a better chance to hit their baseline within a full, 162-game schedule.

As an added bonus, the Reds have emerged as one of the shrewdest, most analytically savvy franchises around, and they won’t hesitate to exploit any edges, in game or through the trade market.

Los Angeles Angels to win the American League West at 4-to-1 (Westgate)

Most proven sets of standings projections—including FanGraphs’ ZiPS and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA—have the Astros, Angels and Athletics grouped extremely close together atop the American League West. So why is the team with the best player in baseball, Mike Trout, a distant third choice according to Vegas odds?

The Angels have perennially underachieved, but they’re in a better position this season. The Astros and A’s both look weakened. LA was one of the unluckiest teams during last year’s shortened campaign, losing two more games than its run differential implied, so the Angels should benefit from positive regression this season.

Mookie Betts to win National League MVP at 7-to-1 (Circa)

Don’t overthink this one. If the Dodgers wind up as far above the rest of the league in the standings as the odds indicate—and they should—the MVP trophy is likely to go to their best player: Mookie Betts.

At 28 years old, he’s right in the middle of his prime and coming off a second-place MVP finish—to Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman—last year. Odds-wise, Betts is currently the fourth choice, below the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr., the Nationals’ Juan Soto and the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. That’s formidable competition, but Betts should stand alone as the favorite with the potential tiebreaker of playing for the best team.

Shohei Ohtani to win American League MVP at 25-to-1 (Westgate)

If the Angels do indeed break out, it’s going to take more than Trout to do it. It could take baseball’s most unique player staying healthy and reaching the potential set for him when he left Japan three years ago.

All signs are positive for Ohtani so far. He’s crushing the ball in spring training and appears recovered from arm issues that forced him off the mound last season. LA is going forward with plans to play Ohtani as both a pitcher and hitter, and if the 26-year-old succeeds at both, he could create a phenomenon and even steal votes from his own three-time MVP teammate. At odds this high, it’s worth a shot.

Bryce Harper to lead the league in home runs at 38-to-1 (Circa)

A few years ago, no one could have expected Harper to be available at this high a price to win the home run title. After leading the National League with 42 homers in 2015, Las Vegas’ most famous baseball native plummeted to 24 the next year, but he has increased that number in every full season since.

Harper is still just 28 years old, so his best seasons could be his next few. This is a chance to buy low on his power potential going into them.

This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.

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