The Golden Knights weren’t supposed to win the Stanley Cup at this time a year ago.
That’s easy to forget now with the way they ended up flying through the playoffs, not allowing any of their four series to reach a Game 7 while compiling a +31 goal differential to claim the Cup. But Vegas entered the playoffs barely in the top five by the betting odds to win the championship and with 10 of the other 15 teams more commonly picked to pull off the feat.
The relative pessimism is why I wrote a, “five reasons to believe in the Golden Knights’ playoff potential,” column ahead of their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets.
Well, it’s time to bust it out again as Vegas prepares to take on the Dallas Stars in its best-of-seven first-round Western Conference Playoff showdown beginning at 6:30 p.m. Monday on the road.
Vegas is unequivocally in a worse playoff spot this season than it was a year ago, especially after slipping to the No. 8 seed in the West with an inexcusable loss to the Anaheim Ducks in its regular-season finale. The Golden Knights therefore finished fourth in the Pacific Division instead of third where a victory would have kept them and spurred an opening playoff series against the Edmonton Oilers.
But the Stanley Cup Playoffs are notoriously wide open, and the Golden Knights have just as many, if not more, reasons for optimism than anyone else in the field.
Circa Sports’ betting odds currently list six teams as more likely to win the Cup than the Golden Knights at 11-to-1 — the Carolina Hurricanes at +575 (i.e. risking $100 to win $575), the Florida Panthers at +625, the Edmonton Oilers at 7-to-1, the Stars at +725, the New York Rangers at +875 and the Colorado Avalanche at +925 — but that might be too many.
For the second straight year, here are five reasons to believe in the Golden Knights heading into the playoffs.
1. They’ve owned the Stars
Maybe the last-minute fall in seeding was a good thing for the Golden Knights.
The top-seeded Stars rate out a tad better than the Oilers by record and virtually all other metrics, but perhaps the Golden Knights match up more comfortably with the former. Vegas swept the season series with Dallas despite coming in as an underdog by the betting market in all three games.
In playoff matchups over last 10 years, the team that has won the season series has gone on to prevail in the postseason just short of 65% of the time according to NHL data. That’s no small trend, and it’s one that’s working in the Golden Knights’ favor in this instance
Vegas also of course dispatched Dallas in six games in last year’s Western Conference Final. And while, yes, two of Vegas’ four wins were of the overtime variety, two others were blowouts on the road — 4-0 in Game 4 and 6-0 in Game 6.
Given the history, the Stars couldn’t have been thrilled to see the Golden Knights emerge as a non-reward for their dominant season.
2. They’re getting healthier
The volume of players missing from the Ducks’ loss was alarming on the surface —Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson, Anthony Mantha, Noah Hanifin, William Carrier and Alex Pietrangelo.
But they could all be back from Game 1 against the Stars. Stone, who’s been out for nearly two months with a lacerated spleen, and Carrier, who’s missed most of the season with multiple undisclosed injuries, have both been skating in non-contact jerseys during recent practices.
Mantha and Stephenson were considered “day-to-day” at the end of the season with less serious injuries. Hanifin just got a night off to rest against the Ducks.
Pietrangelo is the real question, as the veteran, assistant captain defenseman has now missed seven straight games despite initially being out with an illness.
A personnel boost is coming starting against Dallas; the only question is how big of one.
3. They won’t be rattled
The Golden Knights went through their share of rough patches throughout the regular season, but unlike other teams around the league or even past versions of themselves, they never seemed to fret too much.
Consider it the confidence — detractors may say arrogance — that comes out of winning the Stanley Cup. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy referred to his team as a “room of champions” on multiple occasions throughout the year, and he wasn’t exaggerating.
It’s rare a Stanley Cup-winning roster looks as familiar in its defense year as the Golden Knights do this season. The last time a champion was able to retain so much of its core was the 2020-2021 Tampa Bay Lightning.
They ended up repeating. That’s a high bar for the Golden Knights, but there’s a calm that comes with last year’s experience.
There’s not a core as deep as the Golden Knights' in the playoffs that’s proven to be more trustworthy in the biggest moments.
4. Tomáš Hertl can put a hurting on opponents
Cassidy preached patience on a couple occasions with the team’s two trade-deadline acquisitions who were ready to play immediately, Hanifin and Mantha. No matter how talented they might be, he warned it takes time for players to acclimate to a new team on the fly.
He repeated a similar refrain in reference to Hertl, who only recently returned from a lower-body injury after coming to the Golden Knights via a surprising last-minute trade with the Sharks, but it might have been unnecessary. The 30-year-old seems to be fitting in just fine immediately.
The former rival is even adding a new element to the Golden Knights’ game as a physical top-six presence in front of opponents’ nets. The style has yielded a pair of goals and a pair of assists for Hertl in six games with the Golden Knights, and should work out even better in the postseason.
More importantly, Hertl’s presence also appears to have solidified the Golden Knights’ power play, which has produced seven goals since he’s come into the top unit.
Stone, Jack Eichel and defending Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault are still the Golden Knights’ most important forwards in their quest to repeat, but Hertl may top the next group.
5. Logan Thompson is in playoff form
The Golden Knights haven’t benefited from the consistent high-level goalie play they enjoyed throughout last year, but Thompson is trending in that direction.
He’s now 9-2 in his last 11 starts, having given up only one goal in seven of those outings. It’s going to be difficult for Cassidy to commit to Thompson over Adin Hill, who put together an incredible stretch in last year’s playoffs, but it looks like what needs to be done.
Cassidy has made no definitive commitments on who will play in net so far, but the way last year’s playoffs went should further push him in Thompson’s direction. Hill came off the bench in a second-round series against the Oilers after Laurent Brossoit got hurt and caught fire the rest of the way.
That’s proof that Hill could still figure it out even if he’s not playing. It’s proof that he’s an ideal backup plan.
Thompson has earned the right to start and shown enough flashes to believe he can be a big-time difference-maker.
One of the reasons the Golden Knights weren’t a trendy pick to win it all a year ago was because, despite a slew of goaltenders playing well during the season, they supposedly didn’t have the lockdown, top-tier option.
But they ended up finding one in the playoffs, and it could happen again. It could all happen again for the Golden Knights.
Many made the mistake of doubting their true potential last year. Be careful not to fall into the same trap for the second straight year.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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