If someone bet $100 on Matt Brown seven fights ago and continually rolled the winnings over to “The Immortal’s” following bouts, the gambler would now have more than $25,000.
The combined odds have given Brown less than a 0.5 percent chance of getting to where he finds himself Saturday after a seven-fight winning streak. The odds have continually underestimated the UFC’s consummate underdog as he’s fought his way toward a welterweight title shot.
Brown will enter as the underdog for the fifth time in eight bouts in the main event of UFC on Fox 12 on Saturday in San Jose, Calif., against Robbie Lawler. Brown is installed as a plus-275 (risking $1 to win $2.75) underdog, the second-largest of his current run, with Lawler coming back at minus-350 (risking $3.50 to win $1).
The Las Vegas Sun picks panel hasn’t learned its lesson about picking against Brown. All five prognosticators went against Brown at UFC on Fox 12, one of three fights they picked unanimously on the main card.
Check below for picks on all 12 fights from ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (70-33 year to date), ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (65-38), Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (65-38), Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (62-41) and KSNV’s Randy Howe (53-50) along with betting odds and a breakdown of the card.
Matt Brown
- Age: 33
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 12-5
- MMA record 19-11
- Out of: Columbus, Ohio
- Betting line: +275
Robbie Lawler
- Age: 32
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 171
- UFC record 8-4
- MMA record 23-10
- Out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
- Betting line: -350
Welterweight Title Eliminator
Main Event
Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Erick Silva at UFC Fight Night 40.
Punch list: “The Immortal” can finish too, with 89 percent of his wins coming by stoppage. Once considered a mediocre roster-filler, Brown has left those days behind with a seven-fight win streak that includes six knockouts.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Lawler
Cofield: Lawler
Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Jake Ellenberger at UFC 173.
Punch list: “Ruthless” is a finisher with 19 knockouts and a submission in 23 career victories. Once considered past his prime, Lawler has silenced those whispers with his latest run in the UFC that’s included three knockouts and a close decision loss to champion Johny Hendricks.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Lawler
Brewer: Lawler
Okamoto: Lawler
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
- Age: 38
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 4-2
- MMA record 21-5
- Out of: Gardena, Calif.
- Betting line: +385
Anthony Johnson
- Age: 30
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 8-4
- MMA record 17-4
- Out of: Boca Raton, Fla.
- Betting line: -485
Light Heavyweight Bout
Co-Main Event
Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Rashad Evans at UFC 156.
Punch list: “Lil Nog” stunted the considerable momentum he created by stunning Evans with injuries that have left him sidelined for the past year and a half. Age-wise, it would seem he’s wrapping up his career, but the smaller Nogueira brother has proved everyone wrong before.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Johnson
Cofield: Johnson
Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Phil Davis at UFC 172.
Punch list: “Rumble” is adamant he’s several fights away from earning a title shot in his new division. If he can add a second straight impressive victory to his UFC return, it begs to be seen whether the promotion is that patient.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Johnson
Brewer: Johnson
Okamoto: Johnson
Dennis Bermudez
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’6”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 6-1
- MMA record 13-3
- Out of: Farmingdale, N.Y.
- Betting line: -150
Clay Guida
- Age: 32
- Height: 5’7”
- Weight: 146
- UFC record 11-8
- MMA record 31-14
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: +130
Featherweight Bout
Featured Contest
Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Jimy Hettes at UFC 171.
Punch list: “The Menace” used to rely heavily on his background as an All-American college wrestler. No longer. Bermudez has honed his striking to a level where it’s the focal point of his game.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Bermudez
Cofield: Bermudez
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Tatsuya Kawajiri at UFC Fight Night 39.
Punch list: “The Carpenter” believes he has run in him at featherweight, where he fights for the fourth time against Bermudez. Just 2-3 in his past five fights, the octagon mainstay will need to rediscover his previous consistency for his goal to happen.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Guida
Brewer: Bermudez
Okamoto: Guida
Bobby Green
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 3-0
- MMA record 22-5
- Out of: Fontana, Calif.
- Betting line: +200
Josh Thomson
- Age: 35
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 3-2
- MMA record 20-6
- Out of: San Jose, Calif.
- Betting line: -240
Lightweight Bout
Main Card Opener
Last fight: Beat Pat Healy by unanimous decision at UFC on Fox 10.
Punch list: “King” took this fight on two weeks’ notice when Michael Johnson came down with an injury. Luckily, he was already training to compete as he was scheduled to face Abel Trujillo at the canceled UFC 176 event.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Thomson
Cofield: Thomson
Last fight: Lost to Benson Henderson by split decision at UFC on Fox 11.
Punch list: “The Punk” briefly considered retirement after losing his chance at a title shot in the controversial Henderson decision. But he couldn’t shake the feeling that he had something left to achieve in the octagon.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Thomson
Brewer: Thomson
Okamoto: Thomson
Daron Cruickshank
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 156
- UFC record 5-2
- MMA record 15-4
- Out of: Wayne, Mich.
- Betting line: +190
Jorge Masvidal
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 156
- UFC record 3-1
- MMA record 26-8
- Out of: Miami
- Betting line: -220
Lightweight Bout
Fox Prelim
Last fight: Defeated Erik Koch by first-round knockout at UFC Fight Night 40.
Punch list: Cruickshank won’t back down from anyone on the feet. A second-degree taekwondo black belt, “the Detroit Superstar” has scored acrobatic kick knockouts in each of his past two fights.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Masvidal
Cofield: Masvidal
Last fight: Beat Pat Healy via unanimous decision at UFC on Fox 11.
Punch list: Prepare for a striking showcase. Masvidal is a technical and powerful boxer and kickboxer and loves nothing more than someone willing to stand with him.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Masvidal
Brewer: Masvidal
Okamoto: Cruickshank
Patrick Cummins
- Age: 33
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 1-1
- MMA record 5-1
- Out of: Dana Point, Calif.
- Betting line: -140
Kyle Kingsbury
- Age: 32
- Height: 6’4”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 4-4
- MMA record 11-5
- Out of: San Jose, Calif.
- Betting line: +120
Light Heavyweight Bout
Fox Prelim
Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Roger Narvaez at UFC Fight Night 42.
Punch list: After infamously fighting Daniel Cormier on a week’s notice, Cummins earned his spot in the UFC by routing Narvaez. A Reign MMA product, Cummins is known to have transcendent training sessions that hint at his potential.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Kingsbury
Cofield: Cummins
Last fight: Second-round TKO loss to Jimi Manuwa at UFC on Fuel TV 5.
Punch list: Gone for two years as he pondered his future, Kingsbury returns to the octagon with a distant-feeling three-fight losing streak. A member of American Kickboxing Academy, Kingsbury should be well-prepared even with the extensive time off.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Kingsbury
Brewer: Kingsbury
Okamoto: Cummins
Tim Means
- Age: 30
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 2-3
- MMA record 20-6-1
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: -260
Hermani Perpetuo
- Age: 29
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 17-4
- Out of: Rio de Janeiro
- Betting line: +215
Welterweight Bout
Fox Prelim
Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Neil Magny at UFC Fight Night 40.
Punch list: Means is just hanging on in the UFC, but it’s amazing he’s stuck around this long given his background. Before finding mixed martial arts, Means spent time in prison on drug-related offenses.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Means
Cofield: Means
Last fight: Split-decision loss to Jordan Mein at UFC on Fox 11.
Punch list: Owner of a law degree, Perpetuo shoved a potentially lucrative career to chase his passion in mixed martial arts. He trains at Nova Uniao, one of the top gyms in the sport.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Means
Brewer: Means
Okamoto: Perpetuo
Brian Ortega
- Age: 23
- Height: 5’”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 8-0
- Out of: Torrance, Calif.
- Betting line: -145
Mike De La Torre
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 12-4
- Out of: Glendale, Ariz.
- Betting line: +125
Featherweight Bout
Fox Prelim
Last fight: Split-decision win over Keoni Koch at Resurrection Fighting Alliance 12.
Punch list: A fixture at the Gracie family compound in Southern California, Ortega is a feared Brazilian jiujitsu player. He has four submission victories, including two in his past three fights.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: De La Torre
Cofield: Ortega
Last fight: Split-decision loss to Mark Bocek at “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” finale.
Punch list: De La Torre made the most of a tough debut matchup, pushing the veteran Bocek in a close fight. He’s a well-rounded fighter who initially got into mixed martial arts just to stay in shape.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Ortega
Brewer:De La Torre
Okamoto: De La Torre
Tiago dos Santos
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 18-4
- Out of: Laranjal Do Jari, Brazil
- Betting line: -200
Akbarh Arreola
- Age: 31
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 22-7-1
- Out of: Tijuana, Mexico
- Betting line: +170
Lightweight Bout
UFC Fight Pass Prelim
Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Ary Santos at Jungle Fight 65.
Punch list: “Trator” has no relation to former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos, though he does also train with Team Nogueira. Like the Nogueira brothers, dos Santos feels most comfortable boxing and rolling.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: dos Santos
Cofield: dos Santos
Last fight: Submitted Alejandro Rodriguez at Costa Rica MMA 1.
Punch list: “El Cabarello” has no relation to current boxing heavyweight champion Chris Arreola. He’d rather grapple anyway with 16 victories by submission including his past three fights in a row.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: dos Santos
Brewer: dos Santos
Okamoto: Arreola
Noad Lahat
- Age: 30
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 7-1
- Out of: San Jose, Calif.
- Betting line: +210
Steven Siler
- Age: 27
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 5-3
- MMA record 23-12
- Out of: Orem, Utah
- Betting line: -250
Featherweight Bout
UFC Fight Pass Prelim
Last fight: First-round knockout loss against Godofredo Pepey at UFC Fight Night 38.
Punch list: One of only two Israelis to ever fight in the UFC, Lahat spent time in his native country’s military before winding up at American Kickboxing Academy to dive into mixed martial arts. He’s done judo since he was a child.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Siler
Cofield: Siler
Last fight: First-round TKO loss to Rony Jason at UFC Fight Night 38.
Punch list: One of the glut of fighters who stuck from the cast of “The Ultimate Fighter” 14, Siler is now fighting to protect his job with two straight losses. He holds notable wins over Cole Miller and Mike Brown.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Siler
Brewer: Siler
Okamoto: Siler
Gilbert Burns
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 7-0
- Out of: Delray Beach, Fla.
- Betting line: -170
Andreas Stahl
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 9-0
- Out of: Umea, Sweden
- Betting line: +150
Welterweight Bout
UFC Fight Pass Prelim
Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Paulo Teixeira at Face To Face 7.
Punch list: None of Burns’ fights has ever gone to the judges. In fact, the longtime Vitor Belfort training partner has never even let an opponent escape out of the first round.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Burns
Cofield: Burns
Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Veeslin Dimitrov at EMMA 6: The Real Deal.
Punch list: The part-time mechanic grew up wrestling, and the desire to try something new led him to mixed martial arts. He’s finished his past two opponents, one by knockout and one by submission.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Burns
Brewer: Stahl
Okamoto: Burns
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’5”
- Weight: 115
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 6-0
- Out of: Olsztyn, Poland
- Betting line: +130
Juliana Lima
- Age: 25
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 115
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 6-1
- Out of: Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Betting line: -150
Women’s Strawweight Bout
UFC Fight Pass Prelim
Last fight: Knocked out Rosi Sexton at Cage Warriors Fighting Championship 69.
Punch list: A four-time European muay thai champion, no one in the new weight class will want to mix it up on the feet with Jedrzejczyk. She transitioned to MMA two years ago and has scored two knockouts.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Jedrzejczyk
Cofield: Jedrzejczyk
Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Lillani Trolezi at Brazil Fight 7.
Punch list: Lima has worked outside of fighting most of her adult life, both as a tourismologist and account executive. She quickly became fond of both grappling — she counts the guillotine as her favorite move in MMA — and striking — she has two knockout victories.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Lima
Brewer: Jedrzejczyk
Okamoto: Jedrzejczyk
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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